SMBC Bulls Eye Book Value Growth, Bears Flag Revenue Headwinds

Southern Missouri Bancorp heads into its July 23 earnings report with a stock that has run 4% higher over the past month, but one where the options market is sending a mildly more optimistic signal than usual heading into the print.

Options positioning is leaning slightly bullish relative to recent norms. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.66, sitting about 1.1 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.73 — meaning calls have a larger share of open interest than investors have maintained recently. That shift follows a dramatic repricing earlier this summer: the PCR spent much of June above 2.0, peaking near 2.8, before collapsing as the stock climbed. Short positioning offers little drama here. Short interest is 3.1% of the free float — modest for a regional bank — and has roughly doubled over the past month in share terms, though the absolute level remains small. The borrow market tells the same low-pressure story: cost to borrow has climbed 29% over the past week to 0.63%, still a low rate, while availability of shares to lend remains exceptionally loose at 1,741% — meaning the pool of shares available to borrow dwarfs existing short positions by a wide margin.

The real debate heading into the print is whether the bank's tangible book value growth can anchor the multiple against a challenging near-term revenue picture. Bulls point to a 4% rise in tangible book value to $43.16, solid returns — 1.23% ROA and 12.9% ROTCE — and a path toward a 49% efficiency ratio by late 2027. The stock trades at roughly 11.5x trailing earnings and 1.3x book, not a demanding valuation for those metrics. Bears flag an anticipated 5% revenue decline in FY2026 before a recovery, alongside risks from slower loan growth, credit quality pressure, and rising operating costs. Analyst sentiment has been constructive but not enthusiastic: Piper Sandler and Stephens have each raised targets through 2026, reaching $79 and $76 respectively, while Keefe Bruyette sits at $65 with a Market Perform rating. The consensus mean of $76.67 sits only modestly above the current price of $75.41, leaving limited priced-in upside.

Peer performance into the print adds useful context. Regional bank names including SMBK, HBNC, and FBIZ all gained 4–5% on the week heading into today, while SMBC slipped 0.6%. That mild relative underperformance, combined with SMBC's strong year-to-date momentum of roughly 16%, sets up a print where the key test is whether management's commentary on net interest income trajectory and credit quality can sustain that outperformance — or whether the FY2026 revenue headwinds the bears have flagged start to show up in the numbers.