EFX Bears Dig In as Borrow Cost Doubles

Why this matters: Equifax is trading at $170.45, down 20% YTD and 24.7% below the analyst consensus target. Since the Q2 earnings beat on July 15, bears have rebuilt aggressively. Three separate signals now confirm the same direction.

Short Base Keeps Climbing

Short interest hit 5.3% of free float on July 22. That is up roughly 17% from the ~4.5% level noted before the Q2 print. The rebuild is deliberate and sustained — shares short have risen every session since July 9.

The move makes sense in context. The July 15 print delivered a 7.6% one-day pop. Earnings on July 21 then knocked the stock back 5.3%. Bears appear to have used both events: covering into weakness before the print, then re-entering after the miss.

Borrow Cost Surges, But Market Stays Open

Cost to borrow has nearly doubled in a week, jumping 92% to 0.43%. That is the sharpest weekly move since June.

The rise signals increasing demand for borrows. But the lending market is not tight. Availability sits at 2,299% — meaning roughly 23 shares remain available for every one already borrowed. The 52-week floor for availability is 620%. Bears are paying more to borrow, but supply is not a constraint. This is a cost signal, not a squeeze signal.

Options Eased; the Peak Defensiveness Has Passed

The put/call ratio stood at 0.88 on July 20 — the pulse that triggered the options flag. By July 22 it had pulled back to 0.77, below the 20-day mean of 0.80. The PCR z-score is now -0.68, mildly below average.

Options hedging intensity peaked around the earnings date and has since faded. The options market is no longer adding to the bearish signal — it is simply neutral.

Analysts: Targets Down, Conviction Intact

Six firms cut price targets on July 22, the day after the earnings miss. All maintained their ratings. Consensus sits at $210.52 — still 24% above current price. Wells Fargo moved to $212 from $220. Morgan Stanley cut to $225 from $243. RBC made the largest reduction, to $194 from $222.

No upgrades. No target raises. The Street reset estimates but did not abandon the name.

Data Summary

• Price: $170.45, -1.5% on the day, +10.7% over one month
• SI % of free float: 5.32%, up ~17% over two weeks
• Short shares: 6.51 million (July 22)
• Cost to borrow: 0.43%, +92% week-on-week
• Availability: 2,299% — loose lending market
• Put/call ratio: 0.77 (July 22), down from 0.88 on July 20; z-score -0.68
• Analyst consensus target: $210.52; six target cuts on July 22 post-earnings
• Next earnings: October 21, 2026