Navitas Semiconductor reports its July quarter on July 27 carrying a contradictory set of signals: short sellers remain deeply entrenched, yet options traders are the most bullish they have been all year.
The options picture is the clearest divergence from what the headline short interest figure suggests. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.39 — more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.48 — and is near the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks. That configuration reflects an unusual concentration of call activity relative to puts, pointing to speculative positioning for a rally into the print rather than defensive hedging. This comes despite the stock falling 5% on July 23 to $12.03, and having lost nearly half its value over the past month after trading as high as the low $30s in late May.
Short interest tells the opposing story, and it is substantial. Roughly 14.3% of the free float is sold short — a level that ranks in the bottom fifth of the market on short score. That said, the pressure has been easing: short interest has declined about 10% over the past month, retreating from above 36 million shares in mid-June to around 32.9 million now. Crucially, the lending market is loose. Availability is running at roughly 555% of outstanding short interest, meaning there is far more stock available to borrow than is currently being borrowed, and cost to borrow is minimal at 0.47%. That combination rules out any near-term mechanical squeeze dynamic — shorts face little pressure from the funding side.
The bull-bear debate on Navitas centres on whether the company's pivot toward high-power markets — AI infrastructure, grid, and performance computing — can replace the mobile charging revenue base that has driven its past. Bulls point to a $3.5 billion addressable market growing at 60-75% annually and an exceptional 96th-percentile EPS surprise track record. The analyst data, while dated (all key moves were from early May), showed firms including Needham and Baird sharply lifting price targets to $21 and $20 respectively following the prior quarter, though the stock has since given up much of that post-earnings rally. The mean target of around $12.60 is roughly in line with the current price. Bears note deeply negative operating metrics — the EV/EBITDA multiple is deeply negative, return on assets is negative — and a 45% year-on-year revenue decline cited in recent notes that calls into question the pace of that market transition.
Institutional flows add a notable wrinkle. Jane Street disclosed a position of 12.3 million shares as of July 10, built from essentially nothing — a fresh 10.7 million share addition. BlackRock also added 2.7 million shares through June. Set against this, insiders were aggressive sellers in late May, with director Ranbir Singh selling over 3.7 million shares around $29, and the Chairman and CEO also selling in that window. Those sales came at prices more than double the current level, which partly explains the stock's subsequent collapse and likely reflects some overhang. The July 27 print will test whether the AI infrastructure narrative Navitas has been building has any near-term revenue substance — or whether bears holding 14% of the float are right that the transition is taking longer than the market had priced.
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