UL reports its next earnings on July 28 with options positioning drifting more defensive, even as short sellers and the lending market remain firmly on the sidelines.
The most notable shift heading into the print is in options. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.69, running above its 20-day average of 0.63 — about 1.5 standard deviations higher — the most protective skew seen in several weeks. That move is modest in absolute terms, but it stands out against a backdrop where short sellers show no conviction: estimated short interest has eased roughly 10% over the past month and borrowing costs remain negligible at 0.43%. Borrow availability is essentially unlimited, with more than 7,000% availability relative to shares already borrowed — meaning the lending market places no constraint whatsoever on new short positions. The stock itself closed at $60.94, up 1.2% on the day but down 2.3% on the week, consolidating after a roughly 3% gain over the past month.
The bull case for Unilever rests on defensive positioning: a portfolio of durable household brands, steady cash flows, and a valuation that has been compressing. The EV/EBITDA multiple has drifted lower by about 0.36x over the past 30 days to near 11.7x, and the PE ratio has edged down to 16x — relatively undemanding for a consumer staples name. Bears point to a momentum problem that predates this earnings cycle. The ORTEX stock score has declined from around 82 six months ago to 26 today, driven primarily by deteriorating relative strength across medium-term windows. An EPS surprise rank in just the 24th percentile adds weight to the bear case: Unilever has not been a consistent beat-and-raise story.
The institutional ownership picture is broadly supportive, with BlackRock holding 8.3% and building modestly. HSBC Global Asset Management added more than 12.7 million shares in its most recent reported period, one of the larger incremental moves among the top-15 holders. On the insider side, two independent directors made open-market purchases totalling roughly $750,000 in net value over the 90 days to June 8 — small in absolute terms but directionally positive, and worth noting given the stock's soft recent momentum. Historical reactions around recent prints have been mixed: the April result produced virtually no one-day move before recovering nearly 4% over the following week, while the March event saw the stock drop over 6% on the day and extend losses further in the week that followed.
The July 28 release will test whether the volume and margin trajectory justifies even the modestly re-rated multiple — and whether the defensive case holds when the underlying growth picture is this closely scrutinised.
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