Bloom Energy arrives at its July 28 earnings release down 43% in a month and 15% on the week, with a striking split between what options traders and short sellers are each signalling.
The options picture has shifted since Monday's call-heavy extreme. The put/call ratio has edged back up to 1.18 — still a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 1.25, meaning net options positioning remains more bullish than usual heading into the print. That's a notable persistence: even as the stock shed another $12 to close at $184.89 on Thursday, options traders haven't rotated meaningfully back to puts. The PCR 52-week high is 1.43, so while bears have room to press, the current read leans against them. Borrow conditions reinforce the same picture. Availability has loosened sharply from the June tightness — now above 4,100%, versus around 1,500% in late June — meaning the lending pool has enormous slack. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.45%. There is no lending-market pressure on the long side.
Short interest tells a story of retreat, not conviction. SI % of free float holds at 7.6%, down from above 12% three weeks ago — the covering wave documented in prior articles has stabilised rather than reversed. The 30-day decline in shares short is close to 39%. Bears who wanted to press the stock lower ahead of results have largely taken chips off the table, and the borrow data confirms the exit was fast and orderly rather than forced.
The analyst debate is unusually wide. JP Morgan raised its target to $346 on Monday — one of the most aggressive calls on the board — while TD Cowen and the newly initiated Truist Securities both hold at $235–$250. The consensus mean of $286 sits well above the current price, implying 55% upside at face value, but a cluster of neutral-rated targets in the $235–$276 range tells a more cautious story. Bulls are anchored to the 2.8GW Oracle partnership and Bloom's positioning in the hydrogen-and-data-centre buildout. Bears point to the heavy customer concentration that partnership itself creates, and to the risk that rising natural gas costs erode the economics of fuel-cell power relative to alternatives. One valuation flag is worth noting: the P/E multiple has compressed by nearly 40 points over the past 30 days as the stock fell — a dramatic de-rating even before the results arrive.
The earnings print will therefore test whether the Oracle-anchored backlog story is delivering at the margin line — and whether management's guidance for the second half is sufficient to justify any of the target prices that currently sit 30–80% above where the stock is trading today.
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