DINO heads into its July 28 earnings release with analysts revising sharply higher and options traders the most bullish they have been all year.
The options market has undergone a dramatic shift over the past two weeks. The put/call ratio collapsed from above 0.95 in early July to just 0.24 now — near the 52-week low of 0.24 and more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.64. That is a decisive pivot toward call-side positioning, signalling that options traders are leaning into upside rather than hedging against a miss. The shift coincides with a 34.5% one-month rally in the stock to $88.30, a move that has left DINO well above most analyst targets set just weeks ago.
Analyst upgrades are chasing the stock higher, and Goldman Sachs leads the charge. Neil Mehta at Goldman raised his price target from $81 to $109 — maintaining a Buy — the day after a recent analyst note from TD Cowen lifted its Hold target from $79 to $98. Raymond James had already moved its Strong Buy target to $95 earlier in the month. Even Evercore ISI entered fresh with an In-Line initiation at $85. The consensus mean of $83.27 now sits below the current price, a sign that the Street has been slow to keep up with the rally rather than ahead of it. Bulls, per Benzinga's framing, point to the diversity of DINO's business — refining, renewables, midstream, and the new Green Trail Fuels JV — as justification for a re-rating. Bears flag unresolved governance risk: the CEO remains on voluntary leave of absence and an Audit Committee review of disclosure processes is ongoing, which could weigh on any guidance commentary Monday.
The insider picture adds a contrasting note. Chairman and President Franklin Myers bought 15,000 shares at $69.11 in May — a $1 million-plus vote of confidence when the stock traded well below current levels. That purchase looks prescient now. Against it, REH Advisors (a board-linked entity) sold nearly 1.5 million shares at $68.72 on the same day, a near-$100 million disposal that represents the clearest institutional overhang in recent months. Past earnings reactions for DINO have been mixed: the most recent print in May produced a 3.7% one-day drop, though a different Q1 event delivered a 6.8% one-day gain.
Short interest offers no particular tension into this print. At 4.6% of the free float — down modestly over the past week — bears have a modest but not aggressive position. Borrow is cheap at 0.44%, and availability is extraordinarily loose at 3,653% of short interest, meaning there is no squeeze pressure whatsoever. Peers pulled back on the day — MPC, PSX, and VLO all fell 1–2% — while PBF dropped 3.7%, suggesting sector-level caution on the session despite the multi-week refining rally.
Monday's print will test whether DINO's operational results — particularly refining margins and any update on the CEO situation — can validate a stock that has run 35% in a month to a price above most analyst targets set before the rally began.
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