Service Corporation International heads into its July 29 Q2 earnings with a notably bullish options tilt and a stock that has already run hard into the event.
Options traders are leaning decisively toward the upside. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.37, more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.44 — the most call-heavy positioning in recent weeks, and well beneath the 52-week midpoint. That shift has tracked the stock's strong climb: SCI is up 11% over the past month, closing at $82.33 on July 24, with a further 4.6% gain on the week. Bulls are not hedging into this print — they are pressing.
Short sellers have been pulling back in parallel, though the picture here carries a nuance. Short interest as a share of the free float has edged down roughly 2.3% over the past week to 5.4% — still meaningful, but heading in the wrong direction for bears. The month-on-month move tells a different story, however: shorts are actually up 16% over the past 30 days, suggesting the recent build was followed by a partial exit as the stock surged. Borrow conditions offer little incentive to press a new short — cost to borrow sits at a negligible 0.54%, and availability is deep at roughly 570% of outstanding short interest, meaning supply of lendable shares is abundant relative to demand.
The Street broadly agrees with the bullish direction, though most analyst activity on file is from May 2026 or earlier. After Q1 results, JP Morgan trimmed its target to $100 from $110 while keeping an Overweight rating, and UBS edged its Buy-rated target to $93 from $95. The consensus mean target stands near $96, implying roughly 17% upside from the current price — a level the stock is closing in on after its recent run. The bull case rests on pre-need cemetery sales momentum (up 5.3% year-over-year in Q2 2025) and pricing power in funeral services. Bears point to historical EPS growth that has been uneven, plus regulatory risk from potential changes to the FTC's Funeral Rule, which governs how funeral homes disclose pricing.
The earnings history adds a note of caution to the bullish options positioning. The last quarterly print sent the stock down roughly 6% the following day and nearly 9% over the following five sessions. Tuesday's report will test whether the 11% pre-earnings rally has already priced in an upside outcome — or whether it has simply raised the bar.
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