Evercore Options Signal Bullish Lean Ahead of Q2 Print

EVR heads into its July 29 earnings release at $339.63 — down 7.4% over the past month but up 1.4% on Friday — with options markets flashing an unusually bullish lean into the print.

The most striking shift since the prior earnings preview is in options positioning. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.33, nearly two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.45 and close to the lowest reading of the past year. That represents a sharp reversal from the more cautious posture visible earlier in July, when the PCR was running above 0.50. Investors are now buying calls at a clip that stands out historically — far from the defensive hedging typical ahead of a binary event, the options market is positioned for upside. The lending picture reinforces this: borrow availability has opened dramatically to roughly 4,650%, meaning shares remain easy to source for anyone looking to establish a short. Short interest itself has drifted lower, falling another 4.5% on the week to 2.7% of the float, and the cost to borrow has dropped to just 0.22% — well off June's peak. There is no meaningful short-side pressure here.

The analyst backdrop has been consistent for weeks. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and UBS both lifted targets in early July — to $390 and $350 respectively — while keeping their ratings unchanged. The consensus mean target remains at $383.60, roughly 13% above the current price. Goldman Sachs holds a Buy at $374. Bulls point to Evercore's advisory revenue engine: last quarter's 23% year-over-year growth beat consensus by nearly 19%, and the M&A pipeline narrative for the second half of 2026 continues to anchor the upgrade cycle. Bears focus on the compensation ratio, which has been trending lower in a way some read as a sign of margin pressure rather than efficiency gains — the ratio is projected to compress further through 2026, raising questions about operating leverage in a more competitive hiring environment. The factor scorecard tilts toward the bulls: EPS surprise ranks in the 83rd percentile, and EPS momentum scores in the high 70s to low 80s on both 30- and 90-day windows.

Peer performance adds a nuanced wrinkle. LAZ gained 3% on Friday and is up nearly 2.8% on the week. SF has risen 4.7% over the same period. EVR, by contrast, is fractionally lower on the week despite Friday's bounce — a mild lag that may reflect the stock's sharper one-month drawdown rather than any fundamental divergence. The group as a whole appears to be recovering, which gives the M&A backdrop a tailwind heading into the report.

The July 29 print will test whether Evercore's advisory momentum has sustained its beat-and-raise cadence — and whether the compensation ratio story is a temporary drag or evidence of something structurally more challenging.