BBVA heads into its July 30 second-quarter earnings release with options positioning decisively tilted toward optimism and the borrow market almost entirely relaxed.
The clearest pre-earnings signal is in options, and it runs bullish. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.11, well below its 20-day average of 0.21 and near the lowest level of the past year — a reading that reflects call-side demand dominating the options market ahead of the print. That bullish skew has formed against a stock that has already gained 5.4% over the past month to $25.95, adding another 3.2% in the most recent week. The lending market offers no counterweight: availability is extraordinarily loose, with roughly 75 shares still available to borrow for every one currently lent out, and cost to borrow has eased to just 0.39% — down sharply from levels above 0.55% seen in late June and early July. Short interest on the US ADR has also been retreating, falling more than 33% over the past month to around 709,000 shares, having peaked above 1.29 million in mid-June. There is no meaningful short-side pressure in this setup.
The bull case has some recent fundamental support. An ORTEX note from yesterday flagged a strong Q2 beat on net interest margin expansion and lower credit costs — a combination that validates the stock's recent climb and frames the official release as a confirmation event rather than a surprise. The ORTEX stock score backs this up: momentum is the standout pillar, with BBVA's one-year relative strength running at exceptional levels and the 50-day moving average sitting well above the 200-day. The dividend score ranks in the 80th percentile, adding an income angle for institutional holders who have been adding quietly — BlackRock lifted its position in the June quarter, and Capital Research, Amundi, and JPMorgan Asset Management all added shares. The bear case is thinner but real: the value pillar is the weakest part of BBVA's factor profile, price-to-book has expanded 0.13x over the past month to just above 2x, and the analyst community has been cautious enough that analyst recommendation differential ranks in just the second percentile. UBS downgraded to Neutral in April, a data point that cuts against the bullish price action even if it has not stopped the rally.
The most meaningful recent analyst move was that April UBS downgrade to Neutral from Buy — relevant context, though the broader consensus picture on the US ADR listing is thin and the consensus rating itself is based on data more than six years old, so it should not be read as the Street's current collective view. What the factor data does show is that short-score rank sits in the 94th percentile, meaning BBVA's short-interest profile is lower-pressure than almost all comparables — a structural condition that leaves the stock less exposed to any squeeze dynamic if the print disappoints.
After last quarter's release in late April, BBVA's ADR gained 3.3% on the day and held roughly 2.7% higher over the following week — a muted but positive reaction that set a constructive tone heading into this report. Wednesday's print will therefore test whether the fundamental improvement already captured in recent analyst notes and priced into an expanding valuation multiple can hold its ground, or whether the gap between an optimistic options market and a cautious analyst community starts to close.
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