ING heads into its July 30 second-quarter earnings report on the back of the strongest fundamental momentum the bank has seen in years.
The story heading into this print is already half-told. A recent market note flagged that ING's H1 2026 net profit jumped 34% year-on-year to €4.2 billion, beating consensus and prompting management to raise full-year guidance. That backdrop — loan growth, net interest margin resilience, improving European credit quality — frames the July 30 release as a confirmation event rather than a discovery. The stock has responded accordingly, gaining about 4% over the past month to close at $32.83, with a 1.5% advance just in the past week.
Options positioning reinforces the bullish lean rather than contradicting it. The put/call ratio is running at just 0.17, well below its 20-day average of 0.20, and near the lower end of the 52-week range of 0.13 to 1.21. That's the market pricing in upside participation, not downside protection — a meaningful contrast to the defensive posture often seen ahead of bank earnings. Short sellers are also stepping back: estimated shares short fell nearly 40% over the past month, with the pace of decline accelerating through July. Borrow availability is exceptionally loose at over 2,200% — more than twenty shares available in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed — and cost to borrow is a negligible 0.43%. There is no short pressure in this stock.
The fundamental picture is equally constructive, though not without nuance. EPS momentum ranks in the 92nd percentile on a 90-day basis — the strongest in ING's European peer group according to ORTEX factor data — and recent analyst estimate revisions have turned positive. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight last July, a move that aligned with the broader re-rating of European banks as rate expectations stabilised. The price-to-book ratio has expanded to around 1.53x, up roughly 8% over the past 30 days, reflecting the market's growing confidence in ING's return profile. At a PE of around 10.8x, the valuation remains undemanding relative to the earnings trajectory. The ORTEX short score sits at 26.8 — a low reading indicating limited bearish conviction from the data.
The institutional ownership picture adds further weight. BlackRock holds just under 6% of shares and added over 3 million shares in its most recent filing. Amundi and MFS both trimmed slightly, while JPMorgan reduced its position by 7 million shares — a counterpoint worth watching, though the net flow from passive and long-only investors remains positive.
After the April earnings print, ING gained 3.3% on the day and 7.7% over the following five sessions — the clearest recent precedent for how the stock has responded to a clean beat. Thursday's print is therefore less about whether ING can grow and more about whether management's raised guidance holds up under scrutiny of the underlying margin and volume trends.
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ING Groep N.V. saw short interest jump 13% over the past week to 1.51 million shares as of April 21. The surge follows a month-long decline that saw shorts drop 38% from early March levels. The week-over-week increase…
