Anheuser-Busch InBev reports Q2 results on July 30 with short sellers and borrow markets telling a noticeably less hostile story than they were just weeks ago.
The lending market has loosened dramatically since mid-June, when the borrow pool was essentially exhausted. Availability collapsed to as low as 1.6% in mid-June — meaning barely one share was left available for every 62 already borrowed — but has since rebounded to 116%, a level that signals genuine easing. Cost to borrow dropped nearly 44% over the past week to just under 1%, reinforcing that the demand surge for short exposure has unwound. Short interest itself has also been trickling lower, down roughly 3.3% on the week and 4.4% on the month. Options traders are slightly more defensive than usual heading into the print — the put/call ratio at 0.65 is running modestly above its 20-day average of 0.63, though the z-score of 1.28 is a long way from signalling genuine fear. The stock is up a little over 1% on the week at $81.66, though it remains down about 1.6% over the past month.
The bull case heading into the print rests on a track record of positive surprises. BUD ranks in the 89th percentile on EPS surprise, and EPS momentum factors score in the 67th and 83rd percentiles over 30 and 90 days respectively — suggesting estimate revisions have been consistently positive. The consensus mean price target sits around $94, roughly 15% above the current price, with the Street broadly constructive: Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating earlier this month, even as it trimmed its target modestly to $84.50 ahead of earnings. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo both raised targets after the Q1 print in May, taking them into the low-to-mid $90s. The bear argument is harder to pin down, but the stock's relative underperformance over the past month and an EV/EBITDA of around 9.7x — down slightly over 30 days — leave room for disappointment on volume trends or margin guidance in key emerging markets.
The ownership structure is worth noting briefly. The founding shareholder group — Stichting Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bevco Lux, and associated entities — controls well over 40% of shares, leaving the tradeable float relatively tight. The June episode where availability effectively hit zero reflects how quickly that constrained float can absorb short-side demand. Roberto Moses Motta's appearance as a new holder of 1.4% of shares, fully added in the latest reporting period, adds another notable name to the register. Institutional activity from active managers has been incremental at best, with BlackRock and Vanguard adding modest positions.
The Q2 report will test whether the volume and pricing recovery that powered May's 11% single-day rally — the standout in recent earnings history — has extended into the summer quarter, or whether that gap has simply made the bar harder to clear.
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