SPCX: Analysts Split, Bears Locked In, Earnings Eight Days Away

SPCX has reported every record since listing in this space. The borrow market has not changed. What has changed is the clock — earnings land August 4, and the analyst community is anything but unified.

A Street Divided

Ten analysts have initiated or maintained coverage in the past three weeks. The consensus is Hold. The mean price target is $231 — double the current price of $115.07.

That gap is not a buy signal. It is a measure of disagreement.

HSBC initiated on July 24 with a Hold and a $115 target. That target is exactly where the stock closed. Piper Sandler initiated Neutral at $156. At the other end, Deutsche Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, Macquarie, RBC Capital, and Needham all rate SPCX Buy or Outperform — with targets ranging from $217 to $255.

Six analysts hold Hold. Four hold Buy or better. Nobody is negative in rating, but the spread between the most bearish target and the most bullish is $140.

Earnings on August 4 will force a resolution of some of that spread.

The Borrow Market: Still Shut

Since the July 24 convergence report was published, availability has remained at 4.4% — the record tightest since listing. Nothing has moved. The borrow pool has not loosened.

Cost to borrow reached 3.21% on July 23, up 55% in one week and up 265% over the past month. In late June it was below 1%.

Shares short stand at 202.6 million as of July 23. That is up 19% on the week. The short base has grown every session since July 10, when it stood at 161 million.

The ORTEX short score is 69.0 — its highest reading since listing. It has climbed every single session for two weeks.

Bears are not covering. They are paying more to stay short. The borrow pool is nearly exhausted. None of that has changed since Thursday.

What the Options Market Says

The put/call ratio dropped to 0.83 on July 24. That is the most call-leaning reading in weeks — and well below the 20-day average of 0.93. It is a modest tilt toward calls, not a dramatic shift. But it arrived on the same day the stock fell 2.7%, which makes the direction notable.

Options positioning is not confirming the short thesis. Bears hold the borrow market. The options flow leans the other way.

What to Watch

August 4 earnings will matter on two fronts: the fundamental print, and what it does to the borrow market. A positive surprise could force covering into a near-empty pool. A miss extends the current stalemate. The data does not predict which. It simply shows the tension is at its maximum.

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Data summary

• Availability: 4.4% (record low since listing; unchanged from July 23)
• Shares short: 202.6M (up 19% week-on-week)
• Cost to borrow: 3.21% (up 55% week, up 265% month)
• ORTEX short score: 69.0 (record high)
• PCR: 0.83 (below 20-day average of 0.93)
• Price: $115.07 (down 7.2% on the week, down 26.3% on the month)
• Consensus: Hold | Mean target: $231 | 10 analysts active
• Next earnings: August 4, 2026