GRPN: Bears Added Shorts, Now Can't Exit — Earnings in 10 Days

A convergence report published earlier today already covered the core mechanics. The data has moved further in the same direction. This update focuses on what has changed since that note.

Why this matters: Short interest has reversed its gradual unwind and jumped back to 32.5% of float. The borrow pool is now fully exhausted. Options traders are positioned aggressively bullish. August 6 earnings sit ten days out.

What's Changed Since This Morning

The earlier convergence note flagged availability at 2.5% and SI at 32.5%. Both readings have held or worsened through the session. Availability remains at 2.5% — roughly one share still lendable for every forty already out. The borrow pool has now hit 100% of capacity, matching the 52-week high. That is the tightest the lending market has been all year.

Cost to borrow has doubled over the past week. It stood at 1.36% last Thursday. It is now 2.66%. That is still not a punishing rate in absolute terms, but the direction and pace matter. Every new short position opened this week costs twice as much to carry as one opened a week ago. Bears who added last week are paying more for the privilege today.

The Options Signal Hasn't Faded

The put-call ratio hit 0.33 today — the lowest reading in 52 weeks. The 20-day mean is 0.36. The z-score is -2.72. That is a statistically extreme position. Options buyers are not hedging. They are making directional bets on the upside with conviction, and that positioning has only intensified since Thursday's initial signal.

The ORTEX short score sits at 76.7, its highest point in the current series. The factor score for utilization rank is 1 — the most extreme percentile. Short score rank is 3. These are not borderline readings. GRPN sits at the edge of what the ORTEX model captures as short-side structural stress.

The Institutional Picture

Dusan Senkypl, listed as CEO, sold 1.35 million shares at $16.54 on June 11 — a $22.3 million disposal. That sale occurred when the stock was roughly 35% below current levels. The stock is now at $25.81, up 54% over the past month. Pale Fire Capital SE holds 26.8% of shares and has not changed its position. Continental General Insurance added 690,758 shares. The stock has moved well past the price at which the CEO trimmed.

Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 32.5%, up 12.1% in one week
• Availability: 2.5% (1 share lendable per 40 borrowed; 52-week low: 0.51%)
• Cost to Borrow: 2.66%, up 96% week-on-week
• Put-Call Ratio: 0.33 — 52-week low; z-score -2.72
• ORTEX Short Score: 76.7 — highest in current series
• Days to Cover (FINRA): 9.1 days
• Next Earnings: August 6, 2026
• Price: $25.81, down 7.3% on the week, up 54% on the month

What to watch: The borrow pool has twice recovered briefly to the low double-digits before collapsing back toward zero. Whether that pattern repeats before August 6 — or whether availability stays locked at single digits into the print — will determine how much pressure accumulates on the short base ahead of earnings.