eBay heads into its July 29 Q2 earnings report with analyst sentiment turning visibly more constructive — yet short sellers have spent the past week quietly rebuilding positions.
The analyst community has moved with unusual urgency in the two weeks before the print. Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $135 target on July 16. Baird lifted its target to $125 from $117 the following day. Both moves sit well above the consensus mean of around $111. The lone dissenter is Jefferies, which raised its Underperform target to $75 from $65 — a grudging upgrade in price but no change in the negative verdict. Wells Fargo sits on the fence at Equal-Weight with a $105 target. The overall picture is a Street that is broadly bullish but divided on whether the recent rally has already captured the upside: the stock closed at $113.21, already a few dollars above the consensus mean target.
Short sellers tell a more cautious story. Short interest climbed roughly 15% over the past week to 3.6% of the free float, reversing an earlier decline. That weekly build is notable even if the absolute level is not extreme. Yet the lending market carries no real conviction behind the shorts — borrowing costs run at just 0.42%, and availability is extraordinarily loose at more than 1,150%, meaning shares to borrow remain plentiful. The ORTEX short score has edged up to around 39-40, a moderate reading, and the short score rank places eBay near the middle of its peer group. This is not a market bracing for a squeeze, nor one where bears have overwhelming leverage.
Options positioning has drifted modestly more defensive into the release. The put/call ratio moved to 0.95 on Monday, above its 20-day average of 0.87, though the move amounts to roughly 1.2 standard deviations — elevated but not alarming relative to the 52-week high of 1.81. That said, the drift higher in the PCR has been consistent over the past week, as the ratio climbed from the low 0.80s in early July. One notable ownership development: GameStop Corp. appears in the top holder table with a newly disclosed 9.8% stake of 43 million shares — a filing that will attract attention regardless of what the earnings release says. The bulls point to AI-driven personalisation, GMV stabilisation in focus categories like collectibles, and the Depop acquisition extending the platform into younger demographics. Bears flag intensifying competition, uneven performance across categories — Autos and Sneakers have weakened — and advertising revenue growth that may be harder to sustain.
The print tomorrow will test whether the GMV trajectory and full-year guidance can justify a stock trading fractionally above the analyst consensus target, in a week when its closest peers — ETSY and AMZN — have each shed more than 4% and 6% respectively, leaving eBay's relative outperformance looking exposed to any guidance disappointment.
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