JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — heads into its August 20 results with the ORTEX short score at a new record high and the lending market still deep inside historically tight territory, even as cost to borrow has settled into a more stable range this week.
The short score is the clearest signal in this setup. It has ground to 85.6 — another all-time high in the tracked series, extending the steady climb from 84.5 in mid-July. That relentless upward drift, without any meaningful reversal, points to structural positioning rather than tactical noise. Shorts are not covering. Days to cover has been expanding for months, and with availability at just 8.4%, roughly eleven shares are lent out for every one still free to borrow. That is a slight loosening from the 2.9% record low hit on July 14 — flagged in prior notes — but the pool remains extraordinarily tight by any measure. The 52-week minimum is still a live reference, not a distant floor.
Cost to borrow has stabilised after the violent swings described in last week's note. CTB is running at 7.1% — up 143% on the week in percentage terms, though that reflects a comparison against last week's anomalously low reading of around 2.9%. Looking at the full 30-day picture, borrow costs have actually come down from the 10%–10.8% corridor that held through most of June and early July. The pattern that has emerged is one of a compressed but no-longer-tightening lending pool: availability has edged back from its worst levels, CTB is off its June peaks, and yet neither metric has recovered meaningfully. Short sellers are paying to hold, and the pool gives them no easy exit.
The ownership picture adds important context to the short positioning. The Polish State Treasury holds 55% of JSW outright. That concentration dramatically narrows the free float available to borrow, which explains why availability has been structurally thin all year and why small changes in demand can move CTB dramatically within a session. International passive flows are present — BlackRock added roughly 35,000 shares through June — but at the margin. The valuation data offers a contrasting signal: JSW trades at 0.49x book and 6.5x trailing earnings, both cheap on face value, though forward EPS momentum ranks in the 100th percentile on a 30-day basis, suggesting analysts have been revising estimates sharply higher. That combination — cheap multiples, high EPS momentum — sits oddly alongside the record short score, and that tension is the core of the current setup. Note that the analyst consensus price target of PLN 22.25 sits below the current price of PLN 25.84; this data is now two months stale and should be treated with caution.
Earnings history adds a final layer. The most recent print, in May, delivered a 2.4% one-day decline followed by an 8.3% five-day recovery — a pattern where initial reaction was negative but medium-term buyers stepped in. With the next event on August 20, the question is whether that same dynamic holds, or whether the record short score signals that positioning is now heavy enough to amplify any disappointment.
What to watch in the days ahead: whether availability continues its tentative loosening trend into the August 20 earnings date, and whether CTB stabilises below the 8% level or reverses back toward the double-digit corridor that dominated most of June.
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