Ambev arrives at its July 30 earnings print with the short side newly energised — short interest jumped nearly 14% in a single week, even as options traders remain conspicuously calm.
The borrowing picture has shifted since the previous preview published four days ago. Short interest climbed sharply between July 22 and July 24, adding roughly 15 million shares to reach 138 million — a 14% week-on-week rise. That move coincides with a meaningful loosening in borrow availability: the figure has recovered to 65%, up from the mid-50s range that characterised most of last week. Cost to borrow has eased to 2.4%, down from a brief spike above 3.3% earlier in the month. The net read is that new shorts entered aggressively this week, yet the lending pool absorbed the demand without much friction — availability remains well within normal range and far above its 52-week low of 8.5%.
Options positioning continues to tell a different story. The put/call ratio barely moved from last week's reading, holding at 0.26 — roughly 1.6 standard deviations below its 20-day average and near the lowest level of the past year. Demand for downside protection is essentially absent. The stock itself has recovered from its recent trough: it closed at $3.13 on Tuesday, up roughly 2% on the session and clawing back some of the 3% monthly decline.
The analyst backdrop is mixed but tilted cautiously. Scotiabank downgraded the stock to Sector Perform on July 15, two weeks before the print. UBS carries a Sell rating with a $2.90 target, while Barclays holds at Equal-Weight with a $3.50 target — straddling the current price. The dividend score ranks in the 92nd percentile, which underpins the bull case for income-oriented holders. Bears point to a forward EPS growth score in the 36th percentile and persistent currency headwinds across South American operations. The ORTEX short score has crept higher to 58.8, its strongest reading in at least two weeks, consistent with the recent build in short positions.
Tomorrow's print will test whether the sharp one-week jump in short interest reflects genuine fundamental concern about margin compression and volume trends — or simply pre-earnings positioning that unwinds once the numbers are on the table.
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