NOV reports second-quarter results today against a backdrop where the most notable positioning story is one of rapid short-seller exit rather than any fresh buildup.
Short interest has collapsed over the past week — down more than 20% in seven days to 7.0% of the free float — and the ORTEX short score dropped sharply from around 55 to under 50 in just two sessions on July 23-24. That is a meaningful shift. Bears who had built positions above 32 million shares in mid-July have been unwinding aggressively, and the lending market confirms there is no squeeze pressure driving the exit: borrow availability sits at roughly 1,550% of shares short, an exceptionally loose pool, and cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.56%. This looks like conviction-driven covering, not a mechanical squeeze.
Options positioning underscores the same directional lean. The put/call ratio has drifted well below its recent average, now running at 0.09 against a 20-day mean of 0.10, and more than 1.3 standard deviations below that average — near the cheapest level of protection seen all year. The stock itself fell 3.2% on July 28, roughly in line with close peers: SLB dropped 3.0%, HAL fell 2.8%, and gave up 3.5%, suggesting sector-wide energy equipment pressure rather than anything company-specific. Over the past month, NOV is up 6.2%, which has helped compress its EV/EBITDA to around 8.1x — a multiple that has eased about 0.23 turns lower over 30 days.
The analyst community offers a measured but not enthusiastic read. The consensus sits at hold, with ten hold ratings and two underperform ratings. Susquehanna trimmed its target from $24 to $22 on July 8 while keeping a Positive rating, pointing to softer near-term expectations. Targets across the coverage cluster in the $21–$23 range, putting the mean modestly above the current $19.82 price. Bulls point to NOV's entrenched position in essential oilfield equipment and the potential for demand recovery as operators eventually cycle back toward new rig builds. Bears counter that North American drilling activity remains subdued, offshore markets are uneven, and margin expansion is constrained — Barclays downgraded to Underweight in May even as it nudged its target higher, a signal that valuation alone is not enough to move the needle for skeptics. The P/B ratio of roughly 1.1x keeps the value case intact for deep-value holders, with Pzena and First Eagle each holding around 10% of shares outstanding.
The print will therefore test whether NOV's Q2 execution — particularly on margins and order intake — is sufficient to validate the short-covering that has already happened, or whether the sellers simply got out ahead of disappointing numbers.
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