Avis Budget Bears Reload as Earnings Land Today

CAR reports this morning with short sellers reversing course — after weeks of retreating, they have rebuilt positions sharply in the final days before the print.

The most important development since the July 25 preview is a clear change in short-seller direction. SI had been falling steadily through most of July, but jumped 16% in the past week to 14.3% of the free float — reversing roughly half the ground bears had surrendered since mid-June. The move is concentrated in the last two sessions: shorts added over 750,000 shares between July 22 and July 24. That said, borrow conditions have not tightened with the fresh positioning. Cost to borrow has fallen further, now running at just 0.54%, down more than a third on the week, and availability is comfortable at 148% — meaning lenders hold nearly 1.5 shares available for every share currently borrowed. Bears are rebuilding, but doing so cheaply and without pressure. The ORTEX short score has edged higher to 70.2, ranking in just the 6th percentile on short score among peers — a reading that flags elevated short-side conviction.

Options tell a structurally bearish story, though not a freshly alarmed one. The put/call ratio is 1.70, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 1.68 and carrying a z-score near zero. This is a name where heavy put positioning is the baseline, not a new signal. The 52-week high PCR of 2.85 shows just how defensive this market can get around CAR; current levels are elevated in absolute terms but represent relative calm by recent standards. Peer HTZ jumped over 10% in a single session and nearly 14% on the week — a sharp divergence from CAR's more muted 1.6% daily gain and near-flat one-month performance.

The analyst backdrop remains a clear headwind. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $95 on July 24 while holding a Sell rating — still more than 40% below the current $166.32 price. The consensus mean target is $138.86, itself well below where the stock is trading. Most major houses carry negative or neutral ratings, with targets that imply meaningful downside even after several upward revisions since May. Bulls can point to the strong one-year momentum, a Piotroski F-score of 8, and 90-day EPS momentum ranking in the 83rd percentile. Bears anchor on the balance sheet — a negative book value, an Altman Z-score of 0.62, and a negative free cashflow profile — alongside prior earnings history that included a nearly 19% five-day loss following the Q1 print in May.

Today's report will test whether the operational recovery visible in the May rebound — the stock gained over 9% in the five days after that print — has enough momentum to justify a price level that every major analyst considers stretched.