NXT Shorts Rebuild After a Weak Week, but Borrow Market Stays Loose

Nextpower Inc. heads into Wednesday's earnings release having already delivered one print this month — a July 24 event that moved the stock just -0.7% — with shorts pressing harder and the stock now down more than 10% over the past month.

Short interest has climbed sharply since the July 24 non-event. At 5.7% of the float, it has risen 27% over the past week alone — continuing the rebuild from late-June lows when positions had fallen well below their prior peak near 9.2 million shares. That said, the lending market is under no stress. Availability remains ample at roughly 500%, meaning there are five shares available to borrow for every one shorted. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.47%. The short score has drifted higher — from 39.3 on July 17 to 45.4 now — but still ranks in only the 25th percentile for short pressure. This is a quietly rebuilding short book, not a crowded bet. Options positioning reflects mild caution: the put/call ratio is 1.11, modestly above its 20-day average of 1.10, and well below its 52-week high of 1.47. No meaningful defensive spike heading in.

The fundamental debate has tightened but remains constructive on balance. Most of the Street is bullish — Roth Capital reiterated Buy at $175 on July 28, Truist initiated at Buy with a $140 target earlier this month, and Guggenheim upgraded to Buy at $125 on July 15. TD Cowen is the clearest dissenter, trimming its target to $118 from $135 while keeping Hold — a note that landed before the July 24 print and now looks more dated. The mean analyst target of $149 implies roughly 56% upside to the current $95.35 close, a gap that reflects how far the stock has fallen from where most of the Street anchored their models. Bulls point to the Q3 revenue surge of 63% year-over-year, a $5 billion backlog, and guidance that has been raised twice — FY26 EBITDA up 11%. Bears focus on what happens after 2027: U.S. commercial solar CODs are projected to peak around 55 GW and then roughly halve for the remainder of the decade, a structural headwind the current growth rate will eventually have to absorb.

The institutional picture adds an interesting wrinkle. FMR (Fidelity) added over 3 million shares in the most recent quarter, lifting its stake to 13.3% — the largest increase among top holders by a significant margin. BlackRock holds 16.4% and also added shares. On the insider side, however, the CEO and three other executives sold a combined $9 million worth of stock in late June at prices well above current levels, shortly after receiving share awards. Those sales came at around $128, meaning insiders who sold then are sitting on paper gains relative to today's $95 — context the market will weigh against the institutional buying.

The earnings print is less about whether Nextpower can sustain 60%-plus revenue growth — that bar was always going to come down — and more about whether management's raised guidance holds, and what the company signals about the demand picture beyond the 2027 peak that bears keep circling.