Canadian Pacific Kansas City enters the back half of summer having quietly become one of the better-performing names in North American rail — up 4% over the past month and near flat on the week at CAD 129.43, while most of its closest peers finished the week in the red.
The most striking data point in the snapshot is not price action but the collapse in short interest. Shorts against CP have fallen by roughly 38% over the past month, dropping from around 8.4 million shares in late June to under 4.9 million today — equivalent to just 0.54% of the free float. That is a low reading by any standard. The retreat appears to have started sharply around July 7, when shares short fell from 7.7 million to 5.2 million in a single session, and the decline has continued steadily since. Whatever thesis was driving the short book in June — whether tariff anxiety around cross-border freight, integration concerns from the Kansas City Southern deal, or macro headwinds — has largely been unwound. Borrow conditions reflect the same picture: cost to borrow is a negligible 0.54%, and availability in the lending pool is extraordinarily loose at over 5,500%, meaning there is essentially no constraint on new short positions being established if anyone wanted to rebuild one.
The contrast with close peers is notable. edged up 1.9% on the week and added 2.3%, but fell 1.9%, dropped 4.7%, and shed 12.7%. CP's 0.6% weekly gain puts it in roughly the middle of that pack, but its month-long outperformance stands out against a sector that has broadly struggled with freight softness. The ORTEX short score of 27.8 ranks CP in the 80th percentile for low short interest, reinforcing the picture of a name that the short community has increasingly moved away from.
The Street's positioning broadly supports the constructive tone. The valuation has crept higher over the past month — the P/E multiple has expanded by about 0.7 turns to 23.1x, and the P/B ratio has added roughly 0.09 turns — consistent with the price advance but not yet stretched relative to the railway sector's typical range. EV/EBITDA has eased slightly over 30 days to 15.9x, arguably the more relevant measure for a capital-intensive rail network. The factor score picture has one clear standout: dividend score ranks in the 99th percentile, though the dividend data in the snapshot is stale — the most recent events date to 2022, so that ranking likely reflects long-term consistency rather than a recent announcement worth acting on. The EPS surprise score, at the 42nd percentile, is unremarkable, and value metrics remain subdued, consistent with prior notes flagging an EV/EBIT near 22x as a drag on the value pillar.
Institutional holders are broadly stable. TCI Fund Management remains the largest known active holder at 5.24% of shares, though it trimmed by 1.1 million shares in the March quarter. The most notable recent move among holders is JP Morgan Asset Management, which added over 5 million shares in the quarter to June — a meaningful position build. FMR (Fidelity US) added 5.6 million shares through May. On the insider side, the picture through early June is dominated by selling: the CFO Nadeem Velani liquidated roughly 65,000 shares across three transactions in May, and the CMO sold a further 65,000 shares at around CAD 88.9 in late May (a price level well below the current CAD 129, suggesting those were option exercises at a lower strike). A director purchase of 2,000 shares at CAD 118.4 in mid-May provides a modest counterpoint, but net insider activity over the 90-day window skews toward supply rather than demand.
The next scheduled earnings event is October 27. Quarterly results just dropped on July 28-29, meaning the market will now be digesting that print — the prior quarter's release in April produced only a -0.4% one-day move and a -1.2% five-day drift, a subdued reaction that suggests the stock rarely delivers dramatic post-earnings swings. With short sellers having largely stepped aside and borrow conditions extremely loose, the setup heading into the October report will depend on whether the cross-border freight narrative — tariff relief, Mexico corridor volumes, KC Southern integration progress — develops into a clearer catalyst in either direction.
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