Rocket Companies enters its July 30 earnings report with short sellers accelerating their bets at a pace not seen in months, even as the options market and the borrow pool both remain remarkably calm about what's coming.
The short interest move since the last note is the standout shift. Two days ago a previous note flagged 11.4% of the float short and roughly 110 million shares borrowed. That number has now climbed to 14.4% of the free float — approximately 139 million shares — a 24% increase in a single week. The jump largely reflects a repositioning on July 23-24, when short positions jumped from around 110 million to 137 million shares in one session. This is not gradual accumulation; it is a concentrated pre-earnings move. The ORTEX short score has ticked up to 62.9, its highest reading in the 10-day history shown, though it remains elevated rather than extreme. Days-to-cover from the most recent official FINRA filing sit at 5.1 — more than a week of average volume to unwind — which frames any squeeze potential in a meaningful light.
The borrow market, however, is not flashing stress. Availability has eased slightly to about 297% — meaning roughly three shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed — compared to 300% flagged earlier in the week. Cost to borrow has nudged higher to 0.50%, up around 14% on the week, but in absolute terms that is still negligible. The lending pool is not tightening in any urgent way despite the sharp rise in short demand; there is simply too much supply available for bears to face any squeeze pressure in the near term.
Options traders continue to lean bullish, reinforcing the same divergence highlighted two days ago. The put/call ratio is running at 0.37, fractionally above its 20-day average of 0.37 and nowhere near defensive territory. For context, the 52-week high in the PCR is 0.71 — the current reading is barely half that level. Call positioning remains dominant. That pits options buyers squarely against the cohort of traders who added meaningful short positions into the close of the week. The Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight on July 16, with a $19 target, stands as the clearest recent Street catalyst for the bullish options skew; JP Morgan countered on July 13 by trimming its Neutral target from $16 to $15.50. The consensus is a hold on six votes, with four outperform ratings. Mean price target across recent coverage implies roughly 35-40% upside from the current $13.98 close — though the bear case cited by Benzinga puts a downside target near current levels, around $14.
One institutional note worth flagging: T. Rowe Price added over 11.7 million shares in the quarter ended June 30, and BlackRock added 4 million, while FMR added 10 million. That is a meaningful inflow from institutional holders at prices likely above the current level, suggesting the long side of the register is populated by buyers who are already underwater on recent adds. ValueAct holds close to 1% of shares outstanding with no change reported, consistent with a patient strategic holder.
The July 30 print is the immediate catalyst. The last two earnings dates produced a +7.1% next-day move in May and a +1.9% move in June — both positive. With short interest now at its highest level in the 30-day window, the setup heading into tomorrow's release is a binary compression: the bears have committed capital, the bulls have committed through calls and recent institutional adds, and the borrow pool gives neither side an edge on mechanics. The divergence between elevated short positioning and call-heavy options structure means the print itself — and specifically whether it supports or undermines the bull case around Mr. Cooper synergies and market-share gains in originations — is the variable that resolves which side of this disagreement was right.
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