Hims & Hers Health arrives at its August 3 earnings report with a week of contradictory signals: short interest nudged back up, the stock shed 10% in five sessions, yet the borrow market is quietly loosening and options remain relatively calm.
The most notable shift since the prior note is that short interest has reversed course. After weeks of slow retreat, shorts added roughly 4% over the week to 27.7% of the free float — about 60.7 million shares. That's a meaningful change in direction. It follows a sharp jump mid-week, with short positions climbing from around 58.3 million shares on July 23 to over 61 million by July 24 before easing back slightly on Tuesday. The ORTEX short score has held steady in the high 60s, sitting at 70.0 — elevated but no longer climbing at the pace it was earlier in July. The divergence from the prior note's "slow retreat" narrative is real: the unwind has stalled.
The borrow picture tells a more constructive story for would-be shorts. Availability has loosened to roughly 47% — still tight in absolute terms, but well above the near-zero readings of mid-June and the tightest levels of the past year. Cost to borrow remains a negligible 0.81%, barely changed on the week and down sharply from the 1.5% levels seen at end-June. That combination — heavy short interest, improving availability, cheap borrow — means new shorts can enter easily at low cost. Options positioning is muted by comparison. The put/call ratio is 0.61, only fractionally above its 20-day average of 0.59, and well below the 1.52 peak hit at some point in the past year. The options market is not showing pre-earnings fear.
The Street is broadly neutral on HIMS heading into Monday's release, but targets have been moving in one direction. Truist lifted its target to $27 from $23 last Thursday while keeping a Hold. Citigroup raised to $35 from $28 the day before, also holding Neutral. Those moves bring the mean price target to $29.23 — almost exactly where the stock closed Tuesday, which leaves virtually no implied upside from the consensus view. The bull case rests on the Novo Nordisk collaboration and long-term scaling in GLP-1 and adjacent categories. The bear case is immediate: management already cut FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance, citing structural headwinds in the weight-loss business. Forward EPS momentum at 30 days ranks in the 99th percentile — a sharp improvement from deeply negative readings in early July — while the 90-day EPS momentum ranks just 13th. That split tells you short-term estimate revisions have turned, but the longer trajectory remains depressed. Price-to-earnings has compressed nearly 25 points over the past 30 days, now running at 28x.
The insider picture adds a cautionary note. The CFO sold shares on July 6 and again on July 17 at prices between $32 and $36 — above current levels. The CMO, COO, and CTO all sold in June near $31–$35. None of these are large positions in dollar terms, but the pattern of C-suite selling into a stock now trading at $29 is worth noting. The company's top institutional holder, BlackRock, added just over 565,000 shares through end-June, and State Street added modestly, suggesting passive flows are still supportive.
The earnings history frames what Monday could deliver. The June 11 report produced a 3.5% one-day drop followed by a 28% five-day rally — a sell-the-news, buy-the-dip pattern. The May 11 print went the other way: an 11.5% one-day fall that extended to a 21% loss over five sessions. Two prints, two opposite trajectories after similar initial dips. With short interest rebuilding into the event, availability loosened, and the Street clustered just around current price levels, the August 3 release is the one number worth watching.
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