Nomura Options Defensiveness Deepens as Earnings Arrive

NMR reports its first-quarter results today with options traders now at their most defensive posture on record — and the hedging has intensified sharply since the July 26 preview.

The options signal is the dominant story heading into the print. The put/call ratio has climbed further to 3.72 on July 29, a new 52-week high and now running 2.4 standard deviations above the 20-day average of 1.52. To put that in perspective, the previous article flagged 2.03 as the highest reading of the year — the ratio has nearly doubled in three sessions. Demand for downside protection has accelerated even as the stock dipped just 1.5% on the week to $9.67, having gained 10% over the past month. Investors appear to be holding their long positions while aggressively loading up on puts ahead of today's release.

The borrow market remains completely calm and tells a contrasting story. Availability is extraordinarily loose at roughly 1,177% — meaning far more shares are available to lend than are currently borrowed — and the cost to borrow has ticked up only modestly to 1.09%, barely changed from the week prior. Short interest on the ADR has edged up about 15% on the week in share terms, but remains a negligible fraction of the float with days-to-cover of just 1.4. There is no squeeze pressure here, no crowding, and no sign that short sellers are driving the defensive options positioning. The put buying looks like hedging from longs, not a coordinated directional bear bet.

The two most recent earnings reactions offer a wide range of outcomes. The May 2026 print produced a 2.5% one-day gain and a 5.3% five-day rally. The April 2026 print went the other way — a 6.2% drop on day one followed by a 5.6% five-day loss. That asymmetry likely explains some of the elevated put demand: the stock has recovered strongly since April's selloff, and holders appear unwilling to ride through another sharp drawdown unprotected. Analyst coverage on the NYSE-listed ADR is thin and largely stale, with the most recent meaningful action being JP Morgan's upgrade to Overweight in March 2026 — a constructive signal, though now four months old.

Today's print is ultimately a test of whether Nomura's wealth management resilience and any improvement in investment banking fees can justify the 10% monthly rally, or whether compressed domestic trading volumes deliver another April-style reset.