Four Corners Property Trust walks into today's Q2 earnings report with options traders still braced for a move, even as short sellers continued their retreat.
The dominant setup signal remains in the options market. The put/call ratio has held at its 52-week high of 1.66 — well above its 20-day average of 0.85 — and has barely budged despite shorts cutting exposure aggressively over the past week. That persistence is notable: it suggests the defensive tilt in options is a genuine earnings hedge rather than a mechanical artifact of short-side positioning. The PCR surge from near-zero readings in late June to its current peak is one of the sharpest pivots in the 30-day history, arriving precisely as the stock has quietly climbed 3% over the past month to $26.33.
Short sellers, by contrast, have pulled back. Short interest fell nearly 10% week-on-week to 3.8% of free float — reversing the peak-of-4.6% reached around July 23. The lending market backs that retreat up: cost to borrow dropped 12% on the week to just 0.43%, and availability is extraordinarily loose at roughly 3,940%, meaning shares available to borrow dwarf those already borrowed by a factor of nearly 40. No squeeze pressure, no urgency — bears who remain short face trivial carry costs.
The analyst community is broadly neutral, offering little directional conviction ahead of the print. Barclays trimmed its target to $29 from $30 on July 22, maintaining Equal-Weight, while the consensus mean target of $28.11 sits only modestly above the current price. The bull case rests on FCPT's active acquisition pipeline and durable restaurant-sector lease income; bears point to tenant concentration risk and the sensitivity of REIT dividend yields to any further rate pressure. One constructive signal: the CEO has made multiple open-market purchases since February, accumulating over $550,000 in shares at prices near or below current levels — a pattern that has quietly persisted through the recent short-interest build and pullback.
The two most recent earnings prints produced muted reactions — gains of 2.4% and 0.2% on the day — which makes today's elevated put positioning look more cautious than the historical pattern might warrant. The print will test whether FCPT's acquisition momentum and rent-collection stability can justify a stock trading near its 52-week high, with options traders hedging at their most defensive stance of the year.
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