ET's Bull Run Diverges From Midstream Peers Ahead of Monday's Print

Energy Transfer LP heads into its August 4 earnings report having gained 6.5% over the past month — outpacing almost every close midstream peer — while options traders remain conspicuously unbothered by the event.

The options market is the calmest it has been all year heading into this print. The put/call ratio is running at 0.17, a fraction below its already-low 20-day average and near the 52-week floor of 0.14. That is one of the least defensive readings in ET's recent history — investors are not paying for downside protection ahead of the release. The borrow market tells the same relaxed story: availability is enormous at roughly 97x the shares currently short, and borrowing costs have collapsed to near zero, down sharply over the past month. Short interest itself is just under 1% of the free float and is not a meaningful factor here.

The bullish tilt in positioning contrasts with a more mixed analyst picture. RBC Capital raised its target to $23 on July 21, and TD Cowen lifted to $24 on July 16 — both reaffirming positive ratings ahead of the print, with the consensus mean target near $23.90, implying roughly 17% upside to the current $20.36. That said, ET spent the past week essentially flat while closest peers EPD, OKE, and KMI each fell between 1.5% and 4.5%. ET's relative strength is notable — it held ground while the sector slipped — though whether that reflects genuine fundamental confidence or simply stickier income-oriented holders is the open question. The dividend factor score ranks in the 88th percentile of the ORTEX universe, consistent with a yield-driven ownership base that tends not to sell ahead of distributions.

The bear case centers on cash flow deterioration. Free cash flow swung from positive $32MM in Q1 to negative $11MM in Q2, capital expenditure climbed, and the backlog fell 19% year-over-year to $240MM — all pointing to near-term pressure on the underlying business even as gathering volumes have grown. The bull case rests on the asset base: a 25% rise in gathering volumes since 2022, strategic ownership of Sunoco and USA Compression, and a forward earnings yield that ranks in the 77th percentile on 12-month EPS growth. The EV/EBITDA multiple is modest at 8.4x, and the ORTEX short score of 31.5 — one of the lower readings in the coverage universe — reflects how little short-side conviction there currently is against the name.

The August 4 print will test whether the operational cash generation story has stabilized enough to justify ET's outperformance against a sector that spent the week retreating.