Myriad Genetics arrives at its August 4 earnings release as a stock already in freefall — down 47% in a single session on July 31 and nearly 50% on the week, following a quarterly print on July 30 that triggered a 43% one-day collapse.
The wreckage from that print defines the entire setup heading into Tuesday. The stock closed at $2.86, less than half the $5.32 level at which it traded heading into the July 30 release previewed in our prior note. TD Cowen's Kyle Boucher moved quickly in response, cutting his price target from $6 to $4 on July 31 while keeping a Hold rating — a fresh and significant downward revision that now sits above the stock by nearly 40%. The broader analyst consensus target of $6 looks detached from reality at current prices, a reflection of how rapidly the fundamental story has deteriorated rather than a credible near-term destination.
Options positioning has flipped sharply after the crash. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.17, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.20 — the mirror image of the cautious hedging seen before the July 30 print. That shift suggests call-side speculation has surged relative to put protection, which in a post-collapse stock often reflects traders positioning for a bounce rather than expressing fundamental conviction. The borrow market, meanwhile, tells a story of almost no short-seller pressure: availability is vast at over 6,000% of short interest, cost to borrow has fallen 65% in a week to just 0.26%, and short interest itself eased roughly 8% over the same period to 8.7% of the free float. Short sellers are not piling in.
The bull case rests on product launches — Precise MRD and MyRisk enhancements — and a projected 6% revenue growth profile driven by prenatal testing volume. Bears point to a company that has now delivered two consecutive catastrophic quarterly reactions, with analysts uniformly cutting targets and no firm willing to upgrade into the weakness. Glenview Capital added aggressively in Q1 (over 2 million shares), making it the third-largest holder, but those positions were built at prices well above today's level. The August 4 print will test whether the July 30 collapse reflected a one-time shock or a genuine step-change lower in the company's earnings trajectory.
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Myriad Genetics heads into the post-earnings stretch with the stock trading close to multi-year lows, still loss-making at the operating level, and the Street in a cautious but not dismissive mood — a setup defined…
