VSAT reports on August 4 with two distinct camps pulling in opposite directions — and the data since Tuesday's earlier preview has shifted slightly in favour of the bulls.
Short interest has continued its climb, now at 9.5% of the free float with roughly 12.9 million shares borrowed, up 5.5% on the week and 25% over the past month. That build has been steady and deliberate — every session since July 22 has seen the short book grow. Yet the borrow market offers shorts no friction whatsoever. Availability has actually loosened to 355%, up from 314% a week ago, meaning there are now three-and-a-half shares available to lend for every one already out. The cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.53%. Shorts are adding with conviction, not because the trade is hard to put on, but because they believe the case for it.
Options traders disagree. The put/call ratio has drifted to 0.39, more than a standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.44 — one of the more call-heavy readings of the past year. That tilt toward upside exposure runs directly counter to the short book's growth and marks the sharpest divergence between the two positioning signals heading into the print. The stock itself closed at $76.93, down about 14% over the past month after a 7% bounce this week — a recovery that has probably emboldened call buyers while also giving shorts reason to press their thesis.
The bull and bear cases are well-defined. Analysts who are constructive — the consensus leans Buy, with Needham raising its target to $90 after the last print and B. Riley carrying a $106 target — focus on the Inmarsat integration, spectrum assets, and revenue upside from upcoming ViaSat-3 satellite launches. Bears point to intense satellite competition, balance sheet leverage (the Altman Z-score has flagged fragility in recent scoring), and a government spending environment that could squeeze the defense segment. The CFO sold roughly $289,000 worth of stock across multiple tranches in July, a pattern that bears will note, though the trades were small relative to position size and carry low significance scores. The broader analyst recommendation factor ranks in the 94th percentile — the street's formal stance is firmly constructive even as the short book disagrees.
Tuesday's print is therefore a direct test of whether Viasat's operational momentum — particularly in satellite services and defence revenues — is enough to justify a stock that has more than doubled year-to-date, with call buyers betting it can hold and short sellers convinced the re-rating has gone too far.
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