HRMY heads into its August 4 Q2 earnings release with short sellers making a clear statement over the past week.
Short interest has climbed nearly 10% in seven days to roughly 9% of the free float — the sharpest weekly build in recent months, reversing a longer-term decline that had cut positions by 13% over the prior month. The acceleration began around July 23, when covered shares jumped by more than 450,000 in a single session. Despite that build, the borrow market remains far from stressed: availability is running at roughly 624% relative to shares already shorted, meaning there are more than six shares available for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow has ticked up 26% on the week but stays well below 0.5% — negligible friction for anyone wanting to add a position. Options positioning has eased in the same period, with the put/call ratio at 1.03, actually below its 20-day average of 1.14. The stock itself is down about 3% over the past month and closed Friday at $35.24.
The bull and bear cases pull in sharply different directions. Bulls point to WAKIX's durable position in the narcolepsy market, forward earnings-per-share estimates that have been revised materially higher — the 12-month forward EPS growth trend ranks in the 97th percentile of the universe — and a valuation that remains genuinely cheap at roughly 6.7x trailing earnings and 4.5x EV/EBITDA. Mizuho raised its target to $51 just yesterday while maintaining an Outperform, and HC Wainwright stays at $55 with a Buy. The mean analyst target of $45.40 implies roughly 29% upside from here. Bears counter with a harder edge: WAKIX faces growing competition in the rare disease space, seasonality and payer reset dynamics may have inflated recent sales figures, and Deutsche Bank holds a $36 Hold target — barely above the current price. Bank of America sits at an Underperform with a $28 target, the clearest skeptic on the Street. Past earnings prints have not rewarded patience: the last two quarterly results produced day-one drops of 2.4% and 5.5% respectively, with the five-day moves deepening the losses in both cases.
Institutional ownership adds texture to the setup. BlackRock is the largest external holder with 11.3% of shares, and Fidelity added more than 265,000 shares in the most recent reporting period. American Century and LSV both added meaningfully as well, suggesting active managers have been buying into the weakness. Insider activity over the past 90 days has been modest — small sales following award grants from the CMO and CCO, low in dollar terms and low in significance scores.
The print is therefore less about whether HRMY is growing and more about whether WAKIX revenue trends can convincingly separate from seasonal noise — and whether management's guidance holds up against the bear case that the recent strength was borrowed rather than earned.
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