Tempus AI heads into its August 4 earnings report with the same split between short sellers and options traders that defined last week's preview — except the options signal has now intensified further.
The put/call ratio hit 0.50 on Friday, more than three-and-a-half standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.39. That is the most defensive options read in a year, narrowly eclipsing the spike flagged ahead of the July 30 print. The contrast with the rest of July is stark: the ratio spent most of the month in the 0.35–0.42 range before lurching higher in the final session of July. Availability has also tightened meaningfully this week — down 10% to roughly 50% — meaning about one share remains available to borrow for every two already lent out. That is not extreme, but it is moving in the wrong direction heading into the event.
Short interest is a more constructive picture. Bears have pulled back sharply: roughly 30.7 million shares are short, representing 17.7% of free float, down nearly 6% on the week and about 17% below the ~37 million shares outstanding at the start of July. Cost to borrow has also eased, now running near 0.76% — low enough that there is little financial pressure forcing short covers. The reduction looks voluntary rather than squeezed, which matters for how to read the remaining 17.7% float position: those shorts still present are presumably committed.
The analyst community is firmly in the bull camp, with six buy ratings and a consensus price target of $66.21 — implying roughly 51% upside from Friday's close of $43.84. Guggenheim raised its target to $65 from $60 in mid-July, while Needham reiterated its $75 target as recently as Thursday. The lone dissent is Jefferies, which initiated in April with an Underperform and a $35 target. Bulls point to the expanding Tempus Platform dataset, precision medicine tailwinds, and what they argue is a valuation that does not reflect the company's growth trajectory. Bears counter with real concerns: volatile ordering patterns, dependence on VA funding for the Million Veteran Program, and a stock trading at an EV/EBITDA of nearly 82x with no visible path to near-term profitability. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 96th percentile, suggesting the company has consistently beaten estimates — but the 30-day and 90-day EPS momentum scores of 6 and 9 respectively signal that analyst estimates have been coming down.
The prior print, on July 30, produced a 5.5% one-day gain. The August 4 report arrives at $43.84 — 24% below the one-month high — so the print will test whether the growth narrative and strong beat history are enough to offset a stock already deep in drawdown, with 17.7% of the float still betting it has further to fall.
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