Paramount Skydance Corporation enters its August 3 earnings report with the stock off 19% over the past month, short sellers still pressing, and options markets notably less hedged than usual — an unusual combination heading into a binary event.
The lending picture has shifted slightly since the earnings preview published earlier today, but the core story is unchanged. Around 82.8 million shares remain borrowed, up roughly 10.7% over the past month. The ORTEX short score holds at 72.0, barely moved from the 73.1 reading recorded just after the July 21 print — this is a persistent, settled short position rather than a fresh escalation. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply this week, dropping nearly 50% to 1.58%, continuing the pattern of brief spikes followed by fades that has repeated since mid-June. Availability has eased to 122%, meaning roughly 1.2 shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed — well above the 52-week low of 37%. The borrow market is not tight, and no squeeze dynamic is building.
Options positioning reinforces the view that this is not a particularly charged setup. The put/call ratio has actually drifted below its 20-day average, reading 0.97 against a mean of 1.01 — about 1.6 standard deviations below trend. That is the least defensive the options market has been in months, which stands in contrast to the elevated short position. The two signals are pulling in opposite directions: shorts are committed, but options traders are not paying up for protection. That divergence is worth watching as the August 3 date approaches.
The Street remains divided, though the balance of recent analyst moves leans cautious. Wells Fargo maintains an Underweight with a $7.00 target — the lowest on the Street and effectively at the current price of $7.96. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight with a $14.00 target back in May, representing the most bullish call in the group. The mean target across analysts sits near $11.77, implying roughly 48% upside from current levels, but much of that gap reflects the fact that the stock has continued to slide since those targets were set. The bear case centres on a 41% revenue decline since 2021, structural pressure on linear TV, and advertising cyclicality. Bulls point to sports retransmission resilience and the potential for new leadership to rebuild the content pipeline. At a price-to-book of 0.76 and EV/EBITDA near 5.7x, valuation is undemanding — but the discount has been in place for months without attracting sustained buying.
Institutional ownership is concentrated at the top. David Ellison holds 30.2% of shares outstanding, with Redbird Capital Partners at 9.4% and Skydance Entertainment Group at 6.8%. Together, these three entities control nearly half the company. That concentration limits the tradeable float and could amplify moves in either direction around the print.
The earnings history provides limited comfort for bulls. The July 21 event produced a one-day gain of 2.5% but a five-day loss of 5.8% — a pattern of initial relief giving way to renewed selling. The May 11 print was worse: down 3.6% on the day and down 11.5% over the following five sessions. The question heading into August 3 is whether a second consecutive print can break that fading pattern, or whether the settled short base and 19% monthly decline simply reset to a new, lower floor.
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