ASML Gives Back the Recovery — Valuation Gap Widens Again

The ground ASML clawed back after its Q2 beat is gone. The Amsterdam-listed shares dropped 8.2% on the week to close at €1,434 — reversing most of the recovery that last week's note described as "closing, not closed."

That reversal matters because it reopens the very tension this series has tracked since results day. The stock beat on Q2, raised full-year revenue guidance to roughly €45 billion, and the market initially shrugged. Then it rallied. Now it has sold off again — harder — leaving the valuation gap between where the stock trades and where the Street thinks it belongs wider than at any point since the earnings print. The P/E multiple has compressed 12 points over the past month, to just under 31.6x. That is the cheapest ASML has looked on trailing earnings in some time, not because earnings deteriorated but because the stock fell. EV/EBITDA tells a similar story, contracting roughly 3.6 turns over 30 days to 24.9x.

The lending market offers no corroborating bear signal. Borrow availability is essentially unlimited — over 107 million shares remain available, and the availability ratio is so high it reads as uncapped. Short interest is structurally trivial, well under 1% of free float, and has barely moved. The ORTEX short score is a stable 25.1, implying no meaningful build in bearish positioning through the lending market. Cost to borrow ticked up this week — roughly 54% above last month's level — but in absolute terms it remains low at under 1%, with a brief spike to 1.96% on July 29 that quickly subsided. Borrow conditions are not the source of pressure here.

The stock's decline is happening in the absence of short-seller aggression, which makes the peer context worth noting. BESI fell 12.7% on the week — slightly worse than ASML. NVMI dropped 10.8%. LRCX lost 4.0%. ASM was the relative outperformer, down 6.8%. The sector-wide nature of the move suggests macro or trade-policy pressure rather than anything ASML-specific — but ASML's larger absolute drawdown may reflect how far its valuation premium stretched after the post-earnings bounce.

The one piece of insider data worth flagging is modest in scale but directionally interesting. Supervisory Board member Birgit Conix bought 125 shares at €1,556 on July 22 — a small personal purchase worth roughly €194,500, significance-rated at 3 out of 10. It does not move the needle on its own. The broader insider picture from February showed coordinated executive sales alongside awards, the standard vesting pattern. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is barely positive, reflecting only the Conix purchase. Nothing here reads as a strong signal in either direction.

ASML's factor positioning remains structurally strong — the short score ranks in the 96th percentile and the days-to-cover rank sits at 97 — reflecting how lightly shorted the stock is relative to its peer universe. The ORTEX stock score was cited at 89.6 last week; quality and momentum scores remain the dominant contributors, with value the persistent drag. The Q3 earnings date is October 14. Between now and then, the question is whether the sector-wide selling pressure stabilises or whether the re-widened gap between price and Street targets begins to attract buyers — the data this week gives no clear answer.