JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — enters the final stretch before its August 20 earnings with a notable shift in the ORTEX short score, even as the lending market remains structurally hostile to fresh borrow.
The most important development this week is the short score's sudden step down. After grinding to a series high of 85.6 on July 27 — flagged in Monday's note as a record — the score has dropped sharply to 72.8 over the past three sessions. That move is large enough to be meaningful, but context matters: 72.8 is still a bearish reading in absolute terms, placing JSW at the 1st percentile of its universe on the short score rank. The prior-week high reflected an extreme accumulation of short positioning signals; the retreat suggests some of those inputs have moderated, not that shorts have structurally reversed course. Days to cover rank and utilization rank both remain in the bottom 3rd percentile, underlining that the positioning backdrop is still deeply skewed against longs.
The lending market tells a similar story — tight, but fractionally less extreme than its worst levels. Availability has ticked up to 7.6%, meaning roughly twelve shares remain lent out for every one still free to borrow. That compares with the 52-week low of 2.9% hit on July 14, but is still firmly inside "very tight" territory by any standard reference. Cost to borrow has stabilised in the 7.8–7.9% range this week after the violent swings described in prior notes — the mid-July peak above 10% has faded, and the current level represents a 20% decline from a month ago. The stabilisation in CTB is a change worth naming: after weeks of dramatic intraday moves, borrow costs are now consistent session-to-session, which makes the lending market easier to read even if it remains constrained.
The fundamental picture offers a more constructive counterpoint. EPS momentum is exceptional — ranked in the 100th percentile on both the 30-day and 90-day measures — reflecting a sharp upward revision cycle in forward earnings estimates. The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 2.4x and a P/E of 6.2x, both deeply discounted to any reasonable steel-sector peer. The P/B ratio of 0.48x means the market values JSW at less than half its book value. The sector factor score is in the 90th percentile, and analyst consensus — while the most recent target data is now 66 days old and should be treated cautiously — had the mean target at PLN 22.2, below the current price of PLN 25.1. That inversion deserves a flag: if analysts were already below the market two months ago, any update on August 20 carries real weight.
Ownership adds an important structural constraint. The Polish State Treasury controls 55.2% of shares. That concentration limits the free float dramatically and is part of why the lending pool is so thin — there simply are not many shares available to borrow in the first place. International passive managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, Dimensional) hold small positions and have made only marginal moves in recent filings. There is no sign of active institutional accumulation or distribution that would change the near-term supply-demand picture in the borrow market.
The stock itself has moved little — PLN 25.1 on Friday, down 1.2% on the week but up fractionally on the day, roughly flat for the month. Earnings on August 20 are the next forcing event: the one prior comparable print in May showed a 2.4% day-one decline followed by an 8.3% five-day recovery, though the sample is too thin to carry much weight. What to watch between now and then is whether the short score's step-down from record highs continues to deepen, or whether it stabilises at current levels — that distinction will clarify whether this week's move was a genuine shift in positioning or simply a technical correction within an otherwise unbroken bearish trend.
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