BBD heads into its August 5 earnings report with options traders showing more caution than at any point in recent months.
The clearest pre-earnings signal comes from the options market. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.92, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.82 — a defensive skew that ranks among the most cautious readings of the past year. That shift has been abrupt: through most of July, the PCR held below 0.82, only breaking higher in the final days of the month as the event drew closer. The stock itself has been quietly recovering, gaining 4% over the past month to close at $3.61, with a small bounce of 0.3% last week.
Short positioning, by contrast, offers little to alarm bulls or bears. Borrowing shares to bet against Bradesco costs almost nothing — the cost to borrow ticked up 22% on the week but remains at just 0.49%, a level that reflects negligible short-seller conviction. Availability is essentially unlimited, with the lending pool orders of magnitude larger than the shares currently borrowed. Short interest has fallen sharply over the past month, down 56%, suggesting that whatever bearish thesis drove elevated shorts in late June has largely been unwound. The ORTEX short score of 26 is unremarkable — short sellers are simply not a primary force here.
The bull and bear cases hinge on whether Bradesco's improving forward earnings growth can translate into delivered numbers. The bank carries a price-to-earnings multiple near 6.7x and price-to-book barely above 1x — both undemanding for Brazil's second-largest private bank. EPS momentum scores have been muted (35th percentile on 30-day momentum), and the EPS surprise ranking is weak at the 13th percentile, meaning the bank has not typically beaten estimates cleanly in recent periods. On the other hand, forward EPS growth estimates have climbed meaningfully — above 20% year-on-year — giving the bull case a genuine fundamental hook. Analyst coverage has been limited in recent months; the most recent major moves are stale and not actionable here.
Worth noting on institutional flow: Massachusetts Financial Services added roughly 36 million shares through June, and BlackRock added 26 million — both building positions into the print. The two prior earnings reactions in early 2026 showed consistent weakness, with the stock falling between 2.6% and 2.8% on the day and extending those losses to roughly 7-9% over the following five sessions. The March 31 print bucked that trend with a 6.6% one-day gain and a 6% five-day follow-through, suggesting the reaction is highly sensitive to the tone of results rather than a structural pattern.
The August 5 print will test whether Bradesco's recovering earnings growth narrative can overcome weak historical surprise delivery — and whether the defensive options positioning heading into the release proves well-placed or premature.
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