Matthews International heads into its August 6 earnings report carrying one of the more notable short positions in its sector — yet the borrow market is telling a surprisingly relaxed story.
Short interest in MATW has climbed to just over 10% of the free float, up nearly 10% from a month ago, a level that places genuine pressure on the bull case heading into results. The ORTEX short score holds at 65.6, a reading that has been broadly stable over the past two weeks — suggesting bears have built their position and are holding rather than pressing. Yet the lending market does not corroborate squeeze pressure: availability runs at roughly 439%, meaning there are more than four shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted. Days to cover sit at 11.3 on official data, which is elevated, but cost to borrow remains a modest 0.53% — close to where it has been all summer. Bears face no meaningful friction in maintaining their positions.
Options positioning has shifted sharply toward the bullish side, and that divergence from the short interest picture is the most interesting setup tension going in. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.31, well below its 20-day average of 0.56 and near its 52-week low of 0.29. The stock has gained 5.7% over the past month and closed Tuesday at $28.20, up fractionally on the day but down about 2.3% on the week. Call buyers appear to be positioning for an upside surprise, while short sellers have spent a month building exposure. Those two camps are firmly on opposite sides of this print.
The fundamental debate is similarly unresolved. The bull case rests on valuation: MATW trades at less than 1x book and an EV/EBITDA around 9.3x, with the ORTEX stock score's value pillar scoring near 89 out of 100. The stock is up roughly 6% year-to-date and has outperformed correlated peers including CSV and SCI over recent weeks. Bears focus on deteriorating fundamentals — sales down nearly 30% year-on-year and a five-year EBIT trajectory that remains negative — alongside a debt load reflected in the enterprise value of around $1.5 billion against a stock price implying a market cap well below that. Analyst coverage is sparse and stale: the most recent price target on record, from B. Riley Securities, dates to late 2024 and has been cut repeatedly from a peak above $90. That target at $40 sits well above the current $28 handle, but the direction of travel has been firmly downward for years, making the implied upside a weak signal rather than a genuine conviction call.
Thursday's print is therefore less a test of whether Matthews can grow and more a test of whether its cash generation and cost structure can stabilise a business that has been shrinking — and whether that is enough to dislodge the bears who now hold more than a tenth of the free float.
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