ZG reports Q2 results today with the divergence flagged four days ago now sharper: short interest has continued climbing, the stock has added further ground, and analysts have been trimming targets in both directions.
Short sellers pressed harder into the rally. Since the August 1 note, shares short climbed another 7.5% to 4.12 million — now representing 8.3% of the free float, the highest level in the 30-day window. Over the past month, the short position has grown roughly 26%, a persistent and deliberate build rather than a one-session spike. The ORTEX short score has risen with it, reaching 58.3 from 53.4 ten days ago, a steady directional drift that puts it in the bottom 9th percentile for short-score rank across the market. Crucially, the borrow market still offers no friction: availability remains around 275%, well into normal territory, and the cost to borrow is 0.52% — actually slightly lower than a week ago. That means the short build is a conviction trade, not a squeeze-driven position. Options positioning is neutrally calibrated, with the put/call ratio at 1.10 — almost exactly in line with its 20-day average — suggesting the broader options market is not adding a directional lean heading into the print.
The analyst picture heading into today's print is tilted toward target cuts without rating changes. Keybanc trimmed to $57 from $65 yesterday while keeping Overweight. UBS took a larger step down to $50 from $75 last week, holding Buy. Goldman held Neutral at $40 — still well below the current price of $37. The mean consensus target of $59.36 implies substantial upside from here, but the direction of recent travel has been lower across the Street: most firms since May have kept their positive ratings while shaving targets, a pattern consistent with analysts acknowledging near-term housing market pressure without abandoning the structural bull case. Bulls point to accelerating digital market share, AI-driven platform improvements, and forward EPS momentum that scores in the 82nd percentile on a 90-day basis. Bears flag persistent housing transaction weakness, a federal antitrust lawsuit, and a competitive market where Zillow's revenue base remains sensitive to for-sale volume. The EV/EBITDA of 8.1x and a PE of 12.7x are undemanding multiples if the growth story holds.
The last two earnings reactions are worth noting descriptively. At the May print, ZG moved barely off unchanged on the day but fell roughly 11% over the following five sessions. At the June print, the stock dropped 2.3% on the day and gave back another 1.7% over the following week. Neither reaction was a blowup, but both leaned negative in the days after the initial release. In that context, the week's strong run — ZG has climbed 9.5% over five sessions to $37.03 — front-loads some positive expectation. Peers JLL and CSGP have also had a strong week, gaining 9.9% and 2.9% respectively, so some of ZG's move reflects sector-wide tailwinds rather than stock-specific optimism.
Today's print is a direct test of whether ZG's top-line growth and platform momentum can justify the stock's recent move — and whether short sellers who have been building steadily through a 26% monthly increase in their position are early or right.
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