SPCX has added 9.4% overnight to $125.33, yet the short base that built through July has not moved — and today's second earnings event arrives with the borrow market still functionally closed.
The lending picture has barely shifted since yesterday's post-print report. Availability is 0.59%, just above its all-time floor of 0.57% set earlier this week. One share remains available for every 168 already lent out. Cost to borrow has risen 34% in a week to 5.42% — more than six times its late-June level. Short interest reached 213.8 million shares on August 3, up roughly 6% on the week and up more than 800% over the past month. The ORTEX short score has climbed again to 70.3, its highest reading since listing. Yesterday's 9.4% bounce has not prompted covering — bears are absorbing the move.
Options positioning is slightly more bullish than the short-side aggression suggests. The put/call ratio is 0.92, a fraction below its 20-day average of 0.93 and well off the defensively elevated readings above 1.0 seen through mid-July. That mild tilt toward calls has now persisted for several sessions — consistent with the pattern flagged before yesterday's print, when the PCR was running at its least defensive in weeks. The two signals still diverge: options traders are not hedging aggressively, while short sellers remain committed at record scale.
The analyst community remains deeply split. Macquarie and RBC Capital reiterated Outperform this week with targets of $250 and $225 respectively — both comfortably above the current price. HSBC's July initiation at Hold with a $115 target is now below where the stock trades. The mean target is $223, nearly 78% above yesterday's close. Bulls point to Starship momentum, expanding government contracts, and compute capacity growth. Bears focus on execution risk, fixed-price contract exposure, high customer concentration, and the valuation premium built into a PE above 178x. Yesterday's print answered one set of questions. Today's second release will test whether the revenue and margin profile emerging from the first public quarter is consistent enough to begin closing that $140 gap between the most bearish and most bullish targets on the Street.
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