JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — has reversed course in the final two weeks before its August 20 earnings, with the short score jumping back and the lending pool tightening sharply after a brief respite.
The short score is the standout development this week. After dropping from its July 27 record high of 85.6 to 72.8 in Monday's note — a move flagged then as meaningful but not a structural reversal — the score has rebounded to 76.4 as of Tuesday. That bounce confirms the earlier read: the mid-week moderation was a pause, not an exit. JSW remains in the 1st percentile of its universe on the short score rank, and days-to-cover and utilization ranks are both anchored in the bottom 3rd percentile. The setup is still as bearish as it gets in terms of positioning.
The lending market has tightened again to match. Availability has fallen back to 5.6% — roughly eighteen shares lent out for every one still free to borrow — after recovering to nearly 8% across last week and the week prior. That deterioration happened fast: availability dropped 32% in a single week. Cost to borrow has also climbed, running at 8.3% after briefly dipping to 6.7% on July 31. Both metrics had offered a window of marginal relief; that window has closed. For context, the tightest the pool has been over the past year was 2.9% on July 14, so the current level is not at its absolute extreme — but the direction of travel is unambiguously back toward stress.
The stock itself has held up. JSW closed at PLN 26.12 on Tuesday, up 4.1% on the day and 4.1% on the week, extending a 2% gain over the past month. That resilience against a structurally hostile short positioning backdrop is notable. The valuation remains genuinely cheap: EV/EBITDA is running at 2.4x, the PE ratio at 6.1x. Both multiples have been compressing over the past 30 days — PE down roughly 1.6 turns in a month — driven by upward EPS revisions rather than price weakness. The EPS momentum factor scores are exceptional, ranking at the 100th percentile on the 30-day measure and 98th on the 90-day, suggesting a dramatic upward revision cycle in forward earnings is still in progress. The State Treasury of Poland holds 55% of the company, which caps both the free float and any meaningful institutional repositioning from outside owners.
The recent earnings history adds one more data point to watch. The most recent print on May 19 saw the stock fall 2.4% on the day before recovering 8.3% over the following five sessions. The April 30 release produced a 3.2% gain on the day. Neither reaction was violent, but the pattern — an initial dip followed by recovery — is worth holding in mind given how tightly the stock is currently borrowed heading into August 20.
With availability falling back toward its tightest levels, the short score recovering sharply, and EPS revisions still running hot, the August 20 print is shaping up as the focal point for a market where bears are heavily committed but valuations and momentum argue the other way.
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