MDV heads into Thursday's results with its lending market at maximum stress — every share available to borrow has now been lent out, while the stock has climbed nearly 9% in a week.
The borrow story is the sharpest angle right now. Availability dropped to 0% on August 4 — every share in the lending pool is currently lent out, the tightest the borrow market has been all year. That compares to 8.3% just the day prior, meaning the final supply was absorbed in a single session. Cost to borrow has been running hot since June, rising from a low of around 2.9% in early June to 13.6% now — a more than fourfold increase over two months, even after easing from a recent peak above 24% in early July. The ORTEX short score jumped to 73.3 on August 4, up sharply from 66.7 the prior session, placing the stock in the 7th percentile for short score globally — meaning it ranks among the most aggressively shorted names in the database. With availability fully exhausted and earnings two days away, the borrow market is as charged as it has been all year.
The recent rally complicates the picture for shorts. MDV closed at PLN 96.9 on August 4, up 8.9% on the week and broadly flat over the past month. A Deputy Chairman of the Management Board, Karol Tomasz Poltorak, bought 4,500 shares across three transactions on July 6 at prices around PLN 102–103 — a modest sum in absolute terms (~$123k combined) but notable for its timing, at a level above where the stock now trades. Net insider buying over the past 90 days is positive at 4,500 shares. The founder and CEO, Dariusz Milek, last bought in open market transactions in July 2024 at PLN 120.
On valuation, MDV trades at a trailing P/E of 12.6 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.9 — the latter has drifted slightly lower over the past 30 days. Price-to-book is 2.1. These multiples are not stretched for an apparel retailer, but they are the market's current read ahead of what could be a moving earnings event. Goldman Sachs reported a new position of 5.1% of shares in the most recent institutional filing, a notable addition. Polish pension funds Nationale-Nederlanden and Allianz Polska also added meaningfully, while the largest holder, ULTRO, cut its stake by around 6.5 million shares.
Past earnings reactions add relevant context. The June 11 print saw the stock rally 11% on the day and extend to a 24.5% five-day gain — a dramatic response. The May 29 event went the other way, with a 3.1% one-day decline and a 3.4% five-day loss. The June 25 filing saw barely any movement. The pattern is uneven: when results land well, the moves are large; when they disappoint, the damage is contained but real. With Thursday's event due at 10:00 CET and the borrow market fully tapped, the setup around the print is worth watching closely.
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