Similarweb heads into its August 12 earnings print with analyst sentiment shifting higher and the stock trading at its best level in months — yet the Street's consensus target still sits below the current price.
The most notable development this week is a fresh target raise from Oppenheimer. On August 5, analyst Ken Wong lifted his price objective to $8.50 from $7.00 while keeping an Outperform rating — the second time he has raised his target this summer, having moved from $4.00 to $7.00 in June. That $8.50 target now sits above the $7.42 close, making Oppenheimer one of the more constructive voices on the stock. Citigroup's Tyler Radke took a different direction in July, lifting his target to $7.00 from $3.00 but holding at Neutral — a move that acknowledged the recovery without endorsing the thesis. The consensus mean target of $5.80 looks materially stale relative to the recent rerate, and the recent individual target moves suggest the aggregate figure is lagging actual Street thinking.
The broader bullish case centres on Similarweb's data and analytics platform and growing pipeline of large deals. Management has pointed to 10.9% year-on-year revenue growth and early traction with GenAI products. The bear case is harder to dismiss: net dollar retention slipped to 98%, customer growth has been modest, and sales execution issues have repeatedly weighed on the ability to convert pipeline into booked revenue. A CEO search remains ongoing — one of the more visible overhangs heading into the print. The PE multiple has expanded to roughly 36x, up about four turns over 30 days, reflecting the 20% one-month price rally.
Positioning in the lending market is about as relaxed as it gets. Borrow availability has risen sharply — now at roughly 1,671% of short interest, its highest reading of the past year and more than double the 52-week low of 292%. That means there are approximately 15.5 million shares available to borrow against a short position of just 624,000 shares. Short interest itself is low and falling, at 0.72% of free float, down from a peak near 0.9% in mid-July. Cost to borrow has doubled over the week to 0.74%, but from a near-zero base — the absolute level remains negligible. There is no meaningful short-side pressure here.
Options positioning confirms the same absence of concern. The put/call ratio is running at 0.031, slightly below its already-low 20-day average of 0.036 and near the bottom of its 52-week range. Call activity continues to dominate, consistent with the stock's one-month rally. The ORTEX short score has eased to 29.8, down from 31.2 two weeks ago, reinforcing the picture: this is not a name where bears are pressing.
The one thread worth watching on the ownership side is insider activity. In May and early June, the founder-CEO and a director each made open-market purchases in the $3.20–$4.15 range, accumulating a combined net of roughly 271,000 shares worth about $1 million over the 90-day window. Those buys were made at prices well below the current $7.42 — they are not recent signals, but they set the context for who was leaning in when the stock was at its lows.
What to watch next: the August 12 earnings report will test whether the May print's one-day dip and subsequent five-day 22% rally was a template or an outlier — and whether any update on the CEO search changes the calculus on execution risk.
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