UHAL Bears Hold Ground Despite Share Price Surge

U-Haul Holding Company heads into its fiscal first-quarter earnings today with a short position that has continued to ease but remains stubbornly large — and a stock that has rebounded sharply in the weeks before the print.

Short interest at 9.1% of free float is down roughly 12% over the past month, continuing the retreat flagged in our August 2 preview. Yet the short base has not broken. Borrow conditions remain relaxed: cost to borrow has fallen another 30% over the past week to just 0.62%, and availability is running near 96% — ample room for new shorts to enter if the print disappoints. The ORTEX short score holds at 76.2, placing UHAL in the 3rd percentile universe-wide, meaning the aggregate bearish signal remains intense relative to nearly all other covered names. That combination — shorts covering but borrow staying cheap and available — suggests the retreat is orderly rather than panicked.

Options positioning has moved modestly more defensive into the print. The put/call ratio is running at 0.57, above its 20-day average of 0.50 by roughly 1.3 standard deviations. That is cautious but not extreme — nowhere near the 52-week high of 3.21, which would signal real alarm. Meanwhile, the stock itself has had a strong run: up 3.4% on the week and nearly 10% over the past month to close at $74.08. Correlated peers were also broadly higher on the day — ODFL gained 3.7%, KNX rose 4.7%, and RXO jumped 6.7% — suggesting sector tailwinds rather than UHAL-specific enthusiasm drove much of the move.

The fundamental tension remains unchanged from the prior note. Bulls point to recovering moving-rental demand and meaningful operational leverage, with forward earnings estimates showing strong year-over-year growth (eps_12m_fwd_yoy_increase ranks in the 81st percentile). The valuation multiple compression is real: EV/EBITDA has drifted down about 0.7 turns over 30 days to roughly 10.9x, and the trailing PE sits near 43x — elevated, but trending lower as earnings estimates rise. Bears anchor on a housing market that has yet to fully reopen and a stock that has run hard without a corresponding improvement in fundamentals. The analyst consensus is a solitary outperform rating with a mean target near $88, though the most recent analyst data is over three weeks old and coverage remains thin.

Today's print is therefore a referendum on whether the demand signals justifying the recent rally are showing up in the actual revenue and margin numbers — or whether the stock has simply moved ahead of a recovery that has not yet arrived.