CACI Reports Today With Bulls Tested by a Weak Backlog

CACI International reports its latest results today against a backdrop where bullish options positioning has held firm — but the fundamental debate has sharpened considerably since the last preview.

Options traders remain in the bull camp, though the conviction has eased slightly. The put/call ratio is 0.31, still well below its 20-day average of 0.46 and near the 52-week floor of 0.27. Call volume is running at roughly three times put volume. That bullish skew has persisted through the week even as the stock slipped 1.2% on Wednesday to $518.03, giving back a fraction of its 6.2% weekly gain. The lending market adds no pressure to that picture: availability is ample at 660%, and borrowing costs remain near historical lows at 0.55%. Short interest at 5.9% of the float is meaningful but has been drifting lower over the past month, down roughly 2.7%.

The bull and bear cases diverge sharply on backlog quality. Bears point to the FQ2 miss — revenues came in at $2.20 billion, below expectations — and a book-to-bill ratio of just 0.6x, with the funded backlog shrinking to $4.4 billion. That trajectory raises real questions about whether mid-single-digit revenue growth is sustainable. Bulls counter that free cash flow generation has been strong, with $281 million year-to-date through FQ1, and that management raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a $9.3–9.5 billion range, implying 8–10% year-over-year growth. Analysts have been trimming targets steadily since April across TD Cowen, Jefferies, Citi, and JP Morgan — none have cut their ratings, but the direction of travel is clear. The consensus mean target of $644 implies roughly 24% upside from current levels, though that figure reflects a community that has been walking numbers down for four months.

Peers had a mixed session. LDOS surged 10% on the day — likely on its own results — while SAIC was flat and PSN extended its recent decline, now off more than 21% on the week. CACI's relative stability through that peer turbulence keeps its positioning distinct, but LDOS's move also resets the bar for what a strong government IT print can deliver.

Today's print is ultimately a test of whether the raised full-year guidance can survive contact with a funded backlog that has been shrinking — and whether new contract awards have recovered enough to restore confidence in the book-to-bill trajectory.