TKO heads into today's earnings print on a sharp rally, with short sellers abandoning positions at a pace that has amplified the move higher.
The most striking dynamic is the wholesale exit by short sellers. Short interest has collapsed nearly 48% over the past month, falling to just 0.83% of the free float — a level so low it carries no meaningful squeeze risk. The lending market confirms the same story: availability has expanded dramatically to 2,896%, meaning there are roughly 29 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out, up 63% on the week alone. Borrowing costs nudged higher, nearly doubling week-on-week to 1.98%, but remain modest in absolute terms. The net picture is one of a short base that has largely unwound ahead of the print, removing a potential tailwind from further covering.
The price action tells the story clearly. TKO has rallied 22% over the past week and 16% over the past month, closing at CAD 11.51 on Wednesday. That momentum is broadly in line with the copper mining peer group — HBM gained 18% on the week, added 18%, and rose 16% — suggesting this is a sector-wide re-rating rather than a company-specific catalyst. The ORTEX short score has drifted steadily lower, now at 27.9, reinforcing that short-side pressure has genuinely eased rather than paused.
Insider activity tells a cautionary counterpoint, however. The net picture over the past 90 days is a net sale of roughly 323,000 shares worth approximately USD 2.6 million, with the COO selling 100,000 shares at CAD 11.14 as recently as July 14 — right in the middle of the rally. The CFO sold 100,000 shares across May, and a Vice President and Company Secretary added further sales in June. The one offset was a modest 11,000-share purchase by an EVP in May at CAD 8.97. The pattern is clear: those closest to the business have been using the strength to sell, not add.
On valuation, the stock's forward earnings yield has moved up to roughly 10%, and the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed 11% over the past 30 days to 5.3x — a modest re-rating that leaves room for debate. ORTEX factor scores flag a 93rd-percentile ranking for forward earnings growth, underscoring genuinely strong fundamental momentum, though the EPS surprise rank at the 36th percentile suggests the company has not consistently beaten estimates in recent quarters.
Today's print will test whether the fundamental results can justify a stock that has re-rated sharply with its copper peers — and whether the growth story is strong enough to keep buyers engaged even as insiders continue to lighten up.
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