KNTK heads into its August 6 earnings print with short sellers quietly retreating and the borrow market comfortably loose — a setup that looks more neutral than charged.
Short interest at 8.5% of free float is meaningful but has been drifting lower. It fell around 2% on the week to roughly 5.4 million shares, pulling back from a spike near 6 million that appeared briefly in late July. The borrow market reinforces that picture: availability has expanded sharply to over 1,000% — more than ten shares available for every one currently lent — confirming that bears face no squeeze pressure whatsoever. Cost to borrow has also eased, running at just 0.51%, down 16% on the week and near the softest levels of the past several months. The stock itself closed at $48.35, down 0.7% on the day and 4.4% on the week, though it remains up about 1.3% on the month. Options positioning is resolutely unbothered: the put/call ratio of 0.15 is essentially flat with its 20-day average, showing no unusual demand for downside protection ahead of the release.
The debate heading into the print centers on whether Kinetik's midstream fee structure can absorb ongoing pressure from Waha price weakness and Alpine High curtailments. Bulls point to the Kings Landing 2 final investment decision — a genuine growth catalyst — alongside a reaffirmed guidance track and a forward dividend yield that ranks in the 99th percentile of the ORTEX universe. Analyst direction has been uniformly constructive: JP Morgan raised its target to $57 in mid-July while maintaining Overweight, and the broader consensus mean sits at $54.25, implying around 12% upside from current levels. Bears counter that commodity-sensitive volume risk is real, and if Waha prices stay weak, curtailed volumes at Alpine High could weigh on throughput numbers. Barclays, holding an Equal-Weight, is the notable holdout from the bullish consensus — a signal that the upgrade cycle has limits. Valuation sits at roughly 9.7x EV/EBITDA, which has drifted slightly lower over the past 30 days, and the PE of 34x leaves little room for disappointment.
Institutional ownership tells an interesting side story. I Squared Capital added nearly 1.9 million shares as recently as July 29, a fresh and sizable new position. BlackRock added 420,000 shares through June. Against that inflow, the major insider development — a block of ISQ Global Fund II sells totaling over $45 million across late April — is now three months old and reflects a different price point near $49-51, suggesting that selling pressure has likely been absorbed. The short score has drifted down from a spike near 65 on July 24 to 53 now, consistent with the unwinding of that brief positioning flare.
The print will test whether Kinetik's volume throughput held firm despite the Alpine High headwinds, and whether management's Kings Landing 2 timeline gives bulls the organic growth confirmation they need to justify the stock's 35% year-to-date run.
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