ONON heads into its August 11 earnings report with a meaningful and growing short position, founders who put real money behind the stock at current levels, and an analyst community that remains broadly bullish but has been trimming targets all year.
Short sellers have built their position steadily through the summer. Short interest climbed 18% over the past month to 7.4% of the free float — roughly 22.2 million shares — with most of that accumulation happening in July. The borrow market remains easy: availability is more than 6x the shares already shorted, and the cost to borrow is just 0.53%, so there is no pressure on existing shorts from the lending side. Options positioning is only marginally more defensive than usual, with the put/call ratio at 0.91 — a hair above the 20-day average of 0.89 and well within the year's normal range. The stock itself has drifted back into positive territory, up 3.6% on the week and 2.5% on the month to $37.55, recovering some of the ground lost earlier in the year.
The more striking signal from recent months is what the founders did at these levels. In mid-May, three of On Holding's co-founders and co-CEOs collectively bought over $6.4 million of stock at prices around $35.97–$36.75 — essentially where the stock trades today. That kind of concentrated insider buying from the people who built the business tends to carry more weight than a routine options hedge or analyst reiteration, and the net insider position over the past 90 days is a $7.4 million net buy, all from founders.
The analyst debate is less clean. The Street's consensus remains firmly bullish — the mean price target of $42.67 implies roughly 14% upside from current levels — and Evercore ISI lifted its target to $46 just this week while keeping an Outperform rating. JPMorgan reinstated with an Overweight and a $51 target in early July. But the direction of travel over much of 2026 has been downward: a cluster of firms slashed targets in May following the Q1 print, with Keybanc cutting from $58 to $43, Barclays from $57 to $46, and Truist from $55 to $48. Note that the UBS target of $83 appears out of step with the rest of the field and the current price, and may reflect a different share class or stale reference — it is not representative of where consensus sits. Bulls point to the FY26 gross margin guidance of at least 64.5%, direct-to-consumer momentum, and the brand's continued international expansion. Bears flag competition, tariff risk, and the sustainability of growth once the novelty premium fades.
The August 11 print is therefore a test of whether On Holding's margin story is on track — and whether the founders' conviction from May was well-timed or simply early.
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