FSLR enters the week after its strongest run in months — up nearly 20% in seven days — yet short sellers are quietly rebuilding positions at the same time the entire Street just raised its targets.
The tension here is genuine. First Solar surged following a strong Q2 print and a policy-driven catalyst: the Trump administration's polysilicon tariff announcement, which benefits First Solar directly since its cadmium telluride process uses no polysilicon at all. The stock's domestic manufacturing advantage has rarely looked more tangible. Yet shorts have added throughout the rally rather than covered into it — a rare combination that sets up a real positioning battle heading into Q3.
The lending market tells the bears' story plainly. Short interest has climbed to 9.8% of the free float, up from 8.9% a month ago and the highest level since early January. Availability has tightened from roughly 37% in mid-July to 34.6% now — firmly in the "tight" range where roughly one share is available for every three already borrowed. At 74% utilization, the borrow pool is not yet fully exhausted, but the direction of travel is clear: shorts are getting in, not getting out. Cost to borrow has nudged up to 2.67%, a five-week high, though it remains moderate enough that holding a short position is not yet punishingly expensive. The ORTEX short score sits at 52, broadly neutral, meaning the data does not yet scream squeeze — but conditions are gradually tightening.
Options positioning contradicts the short-side aggression almost completely. The put/call ratio has pulled back to 0.79, slightly below its 20-day average of 0.84 and well below the 52-week high of 1.45. That reads as a market leaning modestly constructive — options buyers are not rushing to hedge against a reversal despite the sharp rally. The z-score of -0.33 is essentially flat, suggesting no unusual directional stress in either direction. The options market and the lending market are currently telling different stories about where this stock goes next.
The Street came through with rare unanimity after the Q2 report. Goldman Sachs lifted its target to $310 from $260. Morgan Stanley raised to $325. Barclays, Guggenheim, and RBC all moved to $310, while JPMorgan went to $290 — a sweep of raises with no downgrades in the batch. The sole dissenters on direction were BMO Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank, both keeping cautious ratings even as they nudged targets to $225 and $205 respectively. With the stock at roughly $196, the bull camp is pricing in 50–70% upside at the top end. That optimism rests on three pillars the earnings print appeared to confirm: the 57% gross margin supported by Section 45X credits, growing demand from domestic utility-scale buyers avoiding tariff-exposed Chinese modules, and now the new polysilicon price floor as a fourth structural tailwind. The bear camp — visible in that rising short interest — questions backlog sustainability and whether margin strength can hold as ASP pressure persists from silicon-based competitors still undercutting on price. On valuation, FSLR trades at 12.6x earnings and 8.6x EV/EBITDA, metrics that sit firmly in value territory and help explain the quality (79) and value (78) factor scores; the weakness is in growth, which ranks 32 — a reflection of the EPS forward growth rate that has compressed sharply since the start of the year.
Earnings on October 27 is the next forcing function — the last two prints produced a +5.8% next-day move and a +22.8% five-day follow-through, a pattern that will keep both sides of this trade on edge. What to watch in the interim is whether short interest continues its one-directional grind higher despite the stock's gains, and whether availability tightens further below 30% — a level that would mark a meaningful shift in how difficult it becomes to add or maintain bearish positions.
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