Hawaiian Electric Industries heads into the post-earnings week carrying its heaviest short interest in months, while every correlated peer closed the week essentially flat — a divergence that crystallises just how idiosyncratic this name remains.
Short interest is the standout angle. Bears have been quietly adding to positions over the past month, with SI % of FF climbing to 9.5%, up roughly 3.6 percentage points over the past 30 days. The move has been methodical rather than explosive — shares short drifted from around 15.4 million in late June to 16.5 million by August 6, picking up pace in the back half of July. That puts the short position back near its recent ceiling and ranks HE in only the 8th percentile on the short score factor across the universe — a signal that bearish conviction here is above most peers. The ORTEX short score has edged up to 62.2, its highest reading in the 10-day look-back, and days to cover stand at 10.6 on the official FINRA count, meaning any unwind would take meaningful time to absorb. The borrow market, however, tells a different story: availability is ample at 481% of short interest, and cost to borrow is just 0.44%, near its lowest levels of the past six weeks. Bears face no friction entering new positions. Squeeze pressure is absent.
Options positioning adds little urgency to the picture. The put/call ratio at 0.46 is almost perfectly in line with its 20-day average of 0.454, running a half-standard-deviation above — not a defensive signal, just noise. The 52-week range on the PCR spans 0.24 to 0.97, making the current reading unremarkable. Options traders are not hedging aggressively, nor are they chasing upside.
The Street is cautious at best. Jefferies — the most active voice on the name — lowered its target to $11.75 from $13.75 in early July while keeping an Underperform rating, placing its view below the current $12.40 price. Barclays trimmed to $13.00 from $14.00 around the same time, staying at Equal-Weight. The consensus price target of $12.75 implies just 2.8% upside from here, and both active analysts have been in a trend of cutting, not raising. The PE multiple has compressed nearly a full turn over the past month to 11.7x, consistent with a market applying more discount to the earnings trajectory. EPS momentum over 90 days ranks in the bottom quintile of the universe, and the EPS surprise factor at the 22nd percentile reflects a history of underwhelming relative to estimates. The 30-day EPS momentum score at 67, however, is a modest bright spot — suggesting near-term estimate revisions have at least stabilised.
The ownership picture carries one notable data point. Horizon Kinetics remains the largest disclosed holder at 12.5% of shares, a concentrated bet that has been building — their last reported change added 2.2 million shares. Arena Holdings, by contrast, cut its position by 5.4 million shares in Q1, a meaningful exit from the second-tier of holders. With Q2 filings not yet fully available, the net institutional flow picture for the current quarter is incomplete.
The stock is down 7% over the past month to $12.40, underperforming peers meaningfully. GNE gained 4.6% on the week, PNW was flat, IDA, POR, OGE and DUK each moved less than 1% in either direction. HE fell 4% — the performance gap has nothing to do with sector rotation and everything to do with the specific liability story still hanging over the name from the 2023 Maui wildfire litigation. Q2 earnings just dropped; the next formal catalyst is now November 6, making the intervening period one where the legal backdrop and any regulatory updates will likely drive more price action than financial metrics alone.
What to watch: the pace at which short interest moves relative to any news on wildfire settlement negotiations — if bears continue to build at the current rate into a quiet earnings period, the days-to-cover dynamic becomes an increasingly relevant consideration for any position in either direction.
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