National Grid heads into Thursday's results with a notable shift since last week's preview: the short-selling retreat that defined the earlier setup has reversed, and bears are quietly rebuilding positions ahead of the August 13 print.
The change in short positioning is the sharpest development since the previous article. Estimated short shares have climbed roughly 25% over the past week to 831,000 — reversing a multi-month unwind that had cut positions nearly in half through late July. That weekly rise of 11.6% is meaningful, though the month-on-month picture still shows shorts down 35% from their June highs, so the rebuild is early rather than aggressive. Borrow conditions remain relaxed: cost to borrow has dropped to just 0.50%, half its level from a month ago, and availability is a comfortable 254% — meaning there are more than two-and-a-half shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Bears rebuilding here face no friction in the lending market. Options traders, meanwhile, are not sounding any alarm. The put/call ratio of 0.44 is barely above its 20-day average of 0.42, and well below the 52-week high of 1.40, pointing to calm rather than caution in the derivatives market.
The structural debate around NGG is largely unchanged from last week. Bulls focus on regulated cash flows, a grid modernisation cycle that underpins long-term capital deployment, and a defensive yield profile that attracts income-oriented institutional holders — BlackRock alone holds 8.5% of shares, with Vanguard, Capital Research and Lazard among the other large positions. The bear case centres on the stock's valuation relative to its earnings quality: the ORTEX short score has edged up to 38.9 from around 30.5 two weeks ago, a steady drift higher rather than a spike. On valuation, the PE has eased to 12.6 over the past month, which looks undemanding, but the EV/EBITDA of 34.7x reflects heavy infrastructure leverage. The most recent rating actions of note — Jefferies downgrading to Hold and UBS moving to Sell, both in March — left the analyst community leaning cautious, though those moves predate the current earnings cycle by several months.
Past prints offer a relevant caution. The May 2026 full-year results produced a one-day drop of 7.3%, followed by a modest partial recovery of around 0.6% over the subsequent five days. The July interim event was far quieter, with a barely negative one-day reaction of 0.4%. The divergence in those two outcomes suggests the market's sensitivity depends heavily on what the results contain rather than on any consistent directional bias.
The August 13 print will therefore test whether the renewed short-selling activity reflects genuine concern about capital allocation guidance or regulatory newsflow — or whether it unwinds again as quickly as it appeared.
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