Credicorp reports second-quarter results on August 13 against a backdrop of diverging analyst signals, a stock that has pulled back modestly from recent highs, and positioning that looks notably relaxed rather than charged.
The options market is sending a bullish message into the print. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.27, fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.28 — nearly the lowest reading of the past year against a 52-week low of 0.23. That means call activity is dominating the options book, with traders showing little appetite for downside protection. The borrow market reinforces the same quiet tone. Shares available to borrow are extraordinarily plentiful, with availability running at roughly 9,999% — far above even the 52-week low of around 2,929% — and short interest has fallen 23% over the past month to just over one million shares. Borrowing costs have also eased, dropping to 0.44% with the week-on-week move lower. The stock itself has given back 3.4% over the past week to $386.93, though it remains essentially flat over the past month, and is up roughly 35% year-to-date.
The analyst community is less unified heading in. Morgan Stanley lifted BAP to Overweight with a $480 target in June, arguing the Peru-focused financial conglomerate deserves a premium on improving domestic credit dynamics. Goldman Sachs moved in the opposite direction the following month, raising its target to $374 while holding at Neutral — still well below where the stock trades today, making Goldman effectively a soft bear in the debate. JPMorgan sits in the middle: it downgraded to Neutral in June while keeping a $415 target, a signal that the Street sees fair value close to current levels but worries the easy re-rating trade is over. The consensus mean target of $391 implies minimal upside from $386.93, suggesting the bull case now rests almost entirely on earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion. Valuation offers some support — the trailing PE of 12.1x and price-to-book of 2.4x are modest for a dominant regional franchise — but neither has moved meaningfully in the past month.
One data point worth noting is the EPS surprise factor score, which ranks in the 99th percentile of the ORTEX universe. Credicorp has consistently beaten estimates by a wide margin, a pattern that underpins the bull thesis even as price targets converge around current levels. Capital Research added over 2.1 million shares in the most recent quarter, a material build from a long-only institution that implies conviction in the fundamental outlook. Among peers, the week's tape has been mixed: IFS rose 3.2% while Brazilian names including ITUB4 and ITSA4 fell around 4-5%, and Argentine names were hit harder. BAP's relative stability in that context is notable.
The August 13 print will test whether Credicorp's track record of beating estimates can hold as analysts increasingly question how much growth is already priced in at current levels.
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