Nebius Group heads into its August 12 earnings print with a genuinely changed borrow picture — but a short position that hasn't budged.
The biggest development since the August 5 notes is in availability. What had been near-zero lending supply has opened materially: availability climbed to 44.9% on August 6, up from roughly 10% just days earlier and a dramatic reversal from the 5% or below readings that dominated July. That loosening has come alongside a drop in cost to borrow, now 0.92% — down roughly 23% on the week and its lowest in months. Short interest itself, however, has barely moved. At 28.8% of the free float on 62.8 million shares, the position is essentially unchanged from where it was a week ago, and still 21% larger than a month prior. Those shorts remain deeply offside against a stock that has nearly doubled since June, now trading at $187.97 after slipping about 1% on the week.
Options sentiment has also shifted since the August 5 note. The put/call ratio, which had dropped to 0.96 — more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average — has drifted back toward 1.00, still below the 20-day mean of 1.13 but no longer at the extreme call-heavy reading documented earlier this week. The z-score now sits at -1.23, meaning options traders are still leaning bullish relative to recent history, but the conviction has moderated. The 52-week PCR low is 0.55; the current reading is nowhere near that extreme.
The analyst community offers a split verdict. Bears can point to DA Davidson, which this week slashed its target from $250 to $175 while keeping a Neutral rating — the most bearish action in recent weeks. Citigroup, carrying a Buy, also trimmed modestly to $278. Against that, Baird initiated at Outperform with a $250 target and Northland raised its target all the way to $410 in late July. The consensus mean price target of $250.75 implies roughly 33% upside from current levels. The bear case centres on declining average selling prices, capital intensity, regulatory overhang from the company's Russian heritage, and limited management depth in the data centre space. Bulls counter with the $17 billion Microsoft revenue agreement, accelerating AI compute demand, and the company's shift toward an asset-light model that could ease the burden of front-loaded capex. With EPS momentum ranked in the 5th percentile on surprise but the 99th on 30-day trend, the fundamental picture is genuinely contested.
Goldman Sachs reported adding over 20 million shares as of July 31, making it the second-largest disclosed holder at 9% of shares outstanding — a notable institutional endorsement even as the short book holds firm. Past earnings reactions have been violent in both directions: the July 28 print produced a 21% single-day drop before a 20% five-day recovery, while the May 13 report triggered a 23% one-day gain. Tuesday's print will test whether the loosening borrow pool signals fading short conviction, or simply a temporary technical shift before the next positioning battle begins.
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