SNDK arrives at its August 13 earnings date in a markedly different posture than it did eight days ago — the stock fell 11.8% on the day of the August 5 report, yet short sellers have barely budged, and options traders are now the least bearish they have been in months.
The options shift is the most striking development since the last print. The put/call ratio has compressed to 1.24, running more than 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.42. That is almost the mirror image of where positioning stood in early July, when the PCR was pushing toward its 52-week high of 1.65. The direction of travel is clear: options traders who were loading up on downside protection through July have been steadily closing those positions. The stock itself has dropped 25% over the past month to $1,212, including a 3.7% fall on August 7, so the retreat from put hedges is happening into weakness — not complacency after a rally. The borrow market remains extraordinarily loose, with availability at roughly 4,478% of short interest, meaning there is no mechanical pressure on short sellers from the lending side.
Short interest has eased from its late-July peak but remains a live position. SI hit roughly 10.5 million shares in early July, then fell sharply — down 23% over the past month — to 8.05 million shares, or 5.5% of the free float. That decline stalled out this week; SI is essentially flat over the past five sessions. The short base that rebuilt aggressively ahead of the August 5 print did not capitulate after the 11.8% earnings-day drop, and it has not capitulated now. Cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.26%, up modestly on the week but nowhere near levels that would force covering. Bears are holding, but they are doing so without the option hedge that accompanied their position all through July.
The fundamental debate remains wide open. Bulls point to five new long-term customer agreements that reduce NAND cycle volatility, material share gains in enterprise SSDs, and AI-driven demand as a secular tailwind — a case supported by EPS momentum that ranks in the 98th percentile over both 30 and 90 days. The analyst community has been active in the past week: RBC lifted its target to $1,300 while Wells Fargo trimmed to $1,400, and Citigroup cut to $2,100 from $2,500. That spread — between a $1,300 cautious-neutral and a $2,100 bull target — illustrates how wide the valuation range remains relative to the current $1,212 price. Bears flag NAND pricing volatility, the premium embedded in the stock after a year-to-date gain that still exceeds 400% despite the recent drawdown, and the absence of secular drivers that would justify re-rating above what memory peers trade at. Valuation multiples have compressed sharply — the P/E has fallen roughly 33% over the past month — but the EV/EBITDA at 4.2x suggests the market is already pricing in significant mean-reversion risk. Closest peers STX and WDC were both down on the week, off 5% and 20% respectively, removing any sector tailwind that might have softened the setup.
The August 13 print will test whether the long-term supply agreements and AI demand thesis are translating into guidance strong enough to justify a stock that, even after a 25% monthly decline, still carries a valuation premium that most of the Street has yet to fully endorse.
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